No one in the market, and less the government, thought at this point of the year, to be going through the things that are being seen in the last Financial and exchange days. It is rowing to be pointing out that, from this section, several times in recent months, and especially in recent weeks, investors, analysts and operators warned the clouds that were kept over by the Casa Rosada and the economic team.
Growing distrust and cross signals from the BCRA
Today it is enough to listen to the tenor and the countenance of the voice of market professionals trying to outline explanations to customers. In several face -to -face and virtual meetings, more than one was broken, and even skated when wanting to find accurate explanations, not only about what happened, which is happening but also from the actions of the economic team. In the words of conspicuous men of the market, always sheltered in the heat of the power of turn, there would be serious noises in the dome of the Central Bank (BCRA) that have made the harmony creak within the building of the Reconquista street. Many dimes and diretes about the disagreements between the men of the “Toto” themselves. The truth, as they made clear at several operations tables of the City of Buenos Aires, is that today the market is operating under an intense fog of doubts and uncertainty about what is and will be the monetary policy of the Bausili-Caputo tandem.
The truth was that there was everything, in the last meetings, meetings and counterpoints among the mesadineristas, even respectful teasing for the latest forecasts of the star consultant of the local market, which after visualizing a rain of dollars began to announce a rain of pesos, and nobody understood anything, but finally the reality was imposed. Today they babble, because the truth is that nobody is clear where the BCRA and the Treasury are going.
What was evidenced, for everyone, was the impericia for the so -called disarmament of the Lefi (sisters of the Leliq and the passes). Not to mention the sayings of Toto himself, of which this section echoed how he hit the mood of the operators. In this regard, a permanent market consultation person replied somewhat listened to borders outside, that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would have “advised” to Toto, “Buy Reservations, Champion!”, Something like it takes from their own exchange medicine, and thus ensued the purchases of foreign exchange of the treasure part, and already accumulates about US $ 1 billion in the last month.
A “Service” to the model
One of the most respected economic consultants and more attacked by the ruling party, redoubled the commitment that after the elections a “Service” must come to the economic model. This issue finds high consensus between pairs of all aspects about the need to emphasize the economic program because, as it is, it does not give it a long life, this is to reach 2027. In summary, the “mandriles” that had been warning, month by month, that the situation deteriorated and made water the boat, today they discuss the moment in which the government will carry out the Service, because this model based on the “carry tradition” nuts, at least, until you reach the other shore that is access to voluntary international debt markets.
There is no doubt that the issue of the dollar and the rate monopolized everyone. But politics also made a space in the debates. It could be said, as explained in a reserved meeting, that the Government today, while closing and aiming alliances and agreements, is to the “hunt” of the 87 heroes, referring to the deputies who banked the veto last year, precisely in pension laws and university budget. And unlike what many believe, apparently they can be shot to get them, without so many looks, of course, negotiating and giving.
On the ideal stage, the Casa Rosada aspires to have a situation after October similar to the one that enjoyed, but wasted, Mauricio Macri in 2017. But as one of the professionals most often pointed out by banks and investment funds, when visualizing the “drivers”, beyond electoral Bonds, he raised, because a 700 -point country risk that gives a 12% rate is not a stable situation, sooner or later, or a restructuring compression is restructured.
A meeting between the treasurers of the main banks of the City led an arduous discussion about the “Carry”. The host, old sea wolf, explained the current situation under the empire of the Boncap and the LECAP, and concluded that, after the mistakes of the economic team, the fact of doing credible, for the market, the upper exchange band. Today, they sentenced, that it had to be very brave to position themselves long. Just as things are, because the meeting was prior to the meeting of the BCRA Board of Directors, as an example of the prevailing uncertainty, the professionals convened look with affection with very short -term strategies, in short letters combined with dual bonds, for example. What everyone is clear that it is required, or rather the BCRA must return on their steps and swallow saliva, and re -establish a rate corridor. Otherwise the management of the liquidity of the system will be a ghost train. Because today there is neither floor nor roof, with the first leg of the Lefi and the passes. They know that what is ahead, although the BCRA strives and the treasure collaborates, is a more volatile interest rate. Above, the instruments where the corporate treasury parked liquidity, the Lefi and the FCI Money Market vanished from the menu.
Between politics and IMF: what comes in the second half of the year
In another ordera person with links in Washington anticipated a group of local funds that the IMF should be turning the disbursement, if everything goes well, that is, once the most “waiver” technical review is approved and everything, And then go to Board, which has been about two weeks, for early August. Perhaps, he risked, once the Toto receives those pending funds capable of politics. We will have to wait. For now, today are few, as in the poker, those who pay to see.
Source: Ambito
