Coffee price: Does Trump’s customs threat to Brazil make coffee more expensive?

Fifty percent! With such high tariffs, Donald Trump not only wants to cover the EU, but also Brazil. Coffee is one of the most important export goods in the country. Anyone who pays the price for the rabid politics in the end is not yet so clearly certain. It is also a question of supply and demand on the world market.

In any case, the coffee import from Brazil to the USA is likely to decrease. If the US importers then try to cover their needs over other countries, this could drive the prices up. But of course the Brazilian goods have not disappeared from the world market. The beans could be increasingly offered to other countries – possibly on cheaper conditions.

For example, Germany, with around 1.1 million tons of annual import after the USA, number two worldwide in consumption. Both states currently move into around a third of their coffee from Brazil.

The bottom line was that Trump’s customs could change the trade currents, but not necessarily the price. The recent trade in the coffee exchanges also speaks for this: there was a short twitch up, then it quickly settled again. Because: As long as the amount of coffee offered worldwide is not scarce, for example through missed, and the global demand for the hot drink remains roughly constant in the long term for roasters, there is no reason to pay higher prices than up to date. And therefore not for consumers in Germany. In Germany, the prices in retail had reached a climax in March – without the influence of Trump.