The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned about the weaknesses presented by the external position of Argentina. This results from the analysis of the national economy within the framework of the report on the external sector in which the world situation in this area is evaluated.
He points out that “the external position in 2024 was weaker than the implicit level in medium -term foundations and desirable policies.” The agency recognizes that “Economic foundations have improved substantially since the late 2023, but net international reserves are still critically low and the spreads of sovereign debt, although they have decreased dramatically, remain high.”
The fund evaluates that the average real exchange rate was practically unchanged in 2024 with respect to 2023, since a strong correction in December 2023 was followed by an appreciation of more than 40% during the first quarter of 2025 (and again approached the maximums observed in the early 2017).
It specifies that, in May 2025, the real exchange rate was generally without changes in relation to the levels of the end of 2024, in the context of the adoption of a new monetary and exchange regime and the weakening of the US dollar. The organism evaluation suggests an average gap (delay) of the exchange rate by 2024 in a range of 6 to 18%. This implies a gap at the end of the year between 15 and 25%.
However, local private studies relativize these data. It is estimated that, after the recent jump of the dollar and the depreciation of the American currency in the international marketso far this month The actual multilateral exchange rate recorded a 16% improvement.
The fund argues that “the recent transition to a more robust monetary and exchange regime (move from a mobile parity to a flexible exchange rate within relatively broad bands) It allows a exchange rate more determined by the market, although strict macroeconomic policies are still necessary to achieve a solid trade balance and an accumulation of reserves. ”
Reservations
In this matter, the report indicates that net international reserves, after becoming negative by 11,000 million dollars, increased during 2024, but warns that The accumulation has been more difficult since the middle of last year, located in a negative field of 6,000 million dollars at the end of March 2025.
While it points out that “The situation of the reserves has stabilized since the implementation of the new program and the establishment of new exchange bands in mid -April,” the evaluation of the fund is that “the coverage of the reserves remains inadequate”. It is estimated that they would be About 23% of the necessary level according to IMF calculations in the late 2024.
After the disbursement of 12,000 million dollars, the situation improved, but in any case and according to private calculations, currently reserves They would represent only approximately half of the necessary.
The IMF argues that “Early efforts are essential to rebuild reserves, while allowing a greater discovery of currency prices and purchases to fulfill the obligations of the currency debt service ”.
Source: Ambito
