Despite the June commercial surplus, the accumulated balance in the year falls 74% by the import boom

Argentina registered in June 2025 a Commercial surplus of US $ 906 millionthe highest of the year, consolidating 19 consecutive months of positive balance. The fact was highlighted by the Institute of International Strategy (IEI), in its Argentine Comex monitor prepared by the Export Chamber (Wax) based on official INDEC statistics. However, the broader reading of the semester leaves a bittersweet taste: The accumulated surplus between January and June was just US $ 2,788 millionwhich represents a fall in 74% compared to the same period of 2024when the favorable result reached US $ 10,742 million.

This setback in the commercial result is not explained by a drop in exports – which grew in value 4% in the semester – but by The strong increase in importsthat 34.6% year -on -year rose.

Exports: More quantity, less price

During June, foreign sales totaled US $ s7,275 millionwhich represents an interannual increase in 10.8%. The improvement responded exclusively to a 11.2% growth in exported amountssince the average prices showed a slight drop of 0.4%.

Among the big items, the most prominent was Fuels and energywhich duplicated by far its exported volume (+110.5%) Regarding June 2024, despite a strong price decline (-17.2%). They also showed positive performances manufactures of industrial originwith an increase in 12.9% in valuedriven by a rise in 8.5% in prices.

Export items – June 2025 FOB value (USD M)

Year -on -year variation

• Primary products 1.822 +2.6% (Cant. +4.4%)
• Manufactures of Agricultural Origin: 2,536-0.1% (Cant. +3.6%)
• Manufactures of industrial origin: 1.852 +12.9% (Cant. +4%)
• Fuels and Energy: 1,064 +74.2% (Cant. +110.5%)

The Four main exported products were:

• Soy flour and pellets: U $ S753 million

• Petroleum: U $ s739 million

• Corn in grain: U $ S647 million

• Gross soybean oil: U $ S478 million

These goods, all with strong insertion in global markets, reflect the structural bias of Argentine foreign trade, still dominated by primary goods and with little added value.

Imports: Strong volume jump and rebound of consumption

Imports reached US $6,370 million In June, with an increase in 35.9% in valueexplained by a remarkable 53.2% in quantitiessince averaging prices fell 11%. This deteriorates the commercial balance and harms the entry of dollars to the Central Bank.

The growth was widespread, except in the field of fuels and lubricants, which showed a strong decline in quantities (-58.8%) Despite a slight rise in prices.

Among the most prominent economic uses are:

• Passenger car vehicles: +269.9% in volume

• Capital goods: +98.3%

• Consumer goods: +85.8%

• Pieces and accessories for capital goods: +48.2%

Imports for Economic Use – June 2025 CIF value (USD M)

Year -on -year variation

1. Capital goods: 1.217 +100.7% (Cant. +98.3%)
2. Intermediate goods: 2,140 +19.3% (Cant. +27.3%)
3. Fuels and lubricants: 325-57.9% (Cant. -58.8%)
4. Consumer goods: 893 +90.9% (Cant. +85.8%)
5. Passenger vehicles: 509 +248.5% (Cant. +269.9%)

The most imported products in June were:

• Soy beans (not suitable for sowing): US $ s251 million

• Liquefied Natural Gas: U $ S210 million

• Cars between 1,500 and 3,000 cm³: US $ s179 million

• Cars between 1,000 and 1,500 cm³: US $ s164 million

This panorama confirms a strong remedy of private consumption in durable goods, such as cars and appliances, but also a greater dynamism of the industrial sectorwhich demands more inputs and equipment.

Commercial partners: changes in exchange geography

Between January and June 2025, the main destinations of the fastest growing Argentine exports were:

• India: +52.1%

• Chili: +14.1%

• USA: +17.6%

On the import side, the biggest suppliers were:

• China: +79.4%

• Brazil: +49.9%

• Chili: +54.2%

Meanwhile, the bilateral trade balance left very different results:

• With Chinathe deficit was US $5,227 million

• With Brazilred reached US $3,299 million

• With The European Union, the deficit was US $ 1,642 million.

While, the surplus with Chile of US $ 2,804 million stands out.

Although the June data reinforces the continuity of a positive commercial balance, the year -on -year cut of 74% in the accumulated surplus requires paying attention. The rebound of imports is consistent with some recovery of demand, but raises questions about the Sustainability of external balance In the future.