After the injured disarmament of the Lefis by the government, Exchange volatility returned to the local square. It is in this context that The Central Bank (BCRA) strongly increased its intervention on dollar futureswith the aim of curbing the bullish streak of the currency in the prelude to the elections and with a lower income of dollars by the agriculture for the coming months. This way, The volume of futures contracts reached levels not seen in 3 years.
In your latest report, Eco Go He assured that the economic team is “Looking for the price not to exceed $ 1,300”. To achieve this, “he played so that short -term futures are located below the spot (dollar in cash), promoting banks and companies selling spot and re -re -future dollars.”
Future dollar: record intervention
According to the estimates of the consultant who directs Marina Dal Poggettoopen interest (AI), that is, the total number of contracts in force in the futures market, increased more than US $ 1,500 million Last week, a strong indication of the official intervention.
From Personal Investor Portfolio (PPI) They explained that “It is not necessary to affirm that all the increase in AI was due to the actions of the BCRAsince there may be private investors selling dollar futures. “
However, they clarified that “the synthetic positions in pesos (buying dollar linked instrument and selling a dollar future) lost attractive to the highest yields of the fixed rate, given the collapse of the curve, which suggests that yesterday (for this Monday) the rise of the AI was explained almost entirely by the intervention of the BCRA “.
This Monday, the rise was US $259 million, according to PPI, which made jumping The open interest to “U $ 2,296 million in the last eight wheels Au $ S6.304 million. Consequently, “it reached the highest level not only in the Milei era, but also since the end of July 2022 (US $ 7,208 million) “.
Official objective: cool devaluation expectations
The economist Christian Buter affirmed to this media that “It is not sustainable that they continue with this level of intervention” during the next months. “It is one thing to intervene in a moment, to soften a temporary movement, and Another thing is that they end up making it constantly“He emphasized.
For its part, Gustavo Ber He considered that “the interventions in the futures could be conjunctural, and limited, in search of regulating devaluation expectations.”
Buteler considered “quite difficult” than the Ministry of Economy can anchor market expectations only by intervening in this sector, “especially taking into account that in the real market there is a decrease in the offer because Field settlement ended“
And he deepened: “With that drop in supply, if the demand in the second semester is sustained or grows, It will be difficult to be able to bend it pure and exclusively with interventions in the future market“
Do the rate keep high?
Given this situation, Buteer stated that a complementary tool that the government can use to stop the dollar rise is “Maintain the high rate (of interest) as is currently”. However, he stated that “the rate is endogenous today, The Central Bank is no longer established“, in addition to that decision could generate “Disadvantages in economic activity”.
Ber said that “The most important thing is to use the tools available to find a new balance between the dollar and the rate”. Therefore, he considered key “quickly avoiding volatility situations that could deteriorate the expectations of economic agents over time.”
“They went out with everything in futures, I had not seen it for a long time, since May more or less. The rate is going to reheat, one more touch,” said the Outilier economist, Gabriel Caamañoin their networks.
Two of the sections with the highest volume operated on Tuesday They were the contracts for July and August. In the first case, the price reached a value of $ 1,281 before noon, and then quickly lower to $ 1,267. Currently, it moves around $ 1,273.
With similar behavior, the contract for August quickly rose to $ 1,325.5 minutes before noon. Then, Its value collapsed to $ 1,301 and now sold at $ 1,315. Meanwhile, the market expects the dollar by December 2025 to be sold at $ 1,470, far from the $ 1,254 to which the wholesale dollar is listed.
Source: Ambito
