Beyond the volatility shown by the price of dollar In the last days, analysts understand is very difficult that it can be perforated The roof of the flotation band established by the Central Bank.
In that sense and in talk with scope, Daniel Artanaof the Foundation of Latin American Economic Investigations (faithful), “The band’s roof is credible. ”
The economist warns that, to the extent that the price of the dollar approaches the upper limit, The incentive of investors to make “Carry Trade” grows, What can generate an offer of currency to the marketwithout the need for the Central Bank to have to intervene.
“So that everything makes sense, the roof has to be credible and the roof is credible.”explained the professional, who recalled that, according to the agreement signed in April with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the government could use the dollars it received to defend the price.
Artana said that, “to the extent that you leave Approaching the ceiling, the incentive for the ‘carry’ is more powerful because the investor has less risk And that helps sustain the exchange rate. ”
In the event that the exchange rate It reaches $ 1,446, which is approximately the current roof value, then the investor can sell its dollars, invest in ratewhich are currently very positive, and achieve profits without risk, since you will know that the price will continue to rise to 1% per month.
Strictly speaking, to the extent that the market price within the band is close to the ceiling, The risk margin for the investor that makes “carry” is shortened, which allows us to assume that the price could stop before reaching the maximum.
With that logic, The chief economist of faithful considers that the “carry” can put a limit to the interest rate which is extremely positive. If investors sell their dollars there is more pesos offer in the market.
Beyond that, Artana stated that the rise in the price of the dollar inside the band “is healthy” and “it was necessary” To correct the appreciation of the exchange rate. In fact, he said that the pass to inflation of the exchange variation of the last weeks “is limited.”
Dollar: Is there chances of reaching the roof?
The Capital Foundation, directed by the economist Carlos Pérez, assigns 50% of chances that the value of the dollar in flotation. “At the upward pressure in the official exchange rate since the beginning of the month, monetary management was added by the end of the Lefis,” he says in his last report. In the same way, when making an analysis of the demand and potential supply of dollars, it also concludes that “the roof is credible.” “The closer to the band’s roof, if the market trusts it, it should tend to position yourself in pesos,” adds the consultant.
On the other hand, before the consultation of whether it is feasible for the dollar to reach the roof, Andres Reschini, director of the F2 consultant, said that “it is possible, but I don’t know if it’s so likely.”
The economist indicated that the treasure He started buying dollars in block while explaining that “interest rates are very high”. In this regard, he said that the performance that the options in pesos and the inflation that the market “have nothing to do with pesos is offered.”
Source: Ambito
