The agroindustrial sector anticipates that the liquidation of dollars will fall strongly in the next few days product of the end of the temporary decline of retentions. Exporters warn that of the more than US $ 200 million per day they have been delivering in the official market, They will turn less than US $ 100 million. The agricultural currency offer could be scarce until November. The government closely follows the movement of the exchange rate, the futures market and the rates.
After exceeding $ 1,300 for several hours on the first day of the week, The price of the dollar at the National Bank marked $ 1,275 at the close of Tuesday. The economic team breathes. The main commitment to the elections is an exchange rate without sudden movements that helps maintain inflation at bay.
Although From the offer side problems are coming. In the export sector they anticipate that the settlement Extraordinary dollars that were seen in the first half of the year will begin to disappear gradually in the next few days. A qualified source of the sector told Scope that The reduction will be more than 50%.
Driven by the temporary decline of retentions, Agroindustria had been liquidating about US $ 200 million per day. As indicated to this medium, in a few days a decline will be seen to the area of the US $ 100 million per day or even a little less. The phenomenon could be extended until November, unless the Government re -launches a promotional price, something that nobody encourages to discard completely.
More pressure to the dollar in the second semester
“I think that just as in the first half it was from the center of the band downin the second semester it will be half of the band up”Said the financial analyst Christian Buter. On this point, private consultants agree that the demand will be increased by seasonal issues and also by the characteristics of the model: exchange appreciation and commercial opening.
According to data from the Chamber of the oil industry (Ciara), the complex liquidated in the first half of the year US $ 15,419 million, 39.9% more than the previous year. Even with the offer of agriculture at record levels, dodge threats to that stability has cost. Interest rates were overheated and, thus, the risk of deepening the parate that is perceived in the activity is increased.
In May Economic activity contracted 0.1% monthly according to INDEC. In June, mass consumption fell 0.8% year -on -year and also showed a slight decline in the monthly de -stational comparison, according to the data of the Scentia consultant, which specializes in the field.
Luis Caputo asks patience
The effects of the end of the temporal benefit begin to look up. “What is moving is the liquidation of the affidavits of last month, but after What is new sales of agriculture, everything is stopped”, Explained to the scope an operator of the grain market.
The request of the sector in the meetings of Circle Red continues to revolve around the withholdings. But the Treasury Palace knows that little budget margin has and it is clear that Javier Milei’s fiscal commitment is unwavering.
The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, picked up the glove and referred again to agriculture. He mentioned a series of measures that were taken for the sector and said that “the Government’s obsession are withholdings.” He asked “trust and patience.” For now, the numbers do not close and the sector is determined to decelerate sales until the end of the year.
Source: Ambito
