They are not good news for the government and his fight with him dollar. He International Monetary Fund (IMF) He put the exchange policy of Minister Luis Caputo in check, warning – in some form encrypted – that the official exchange rate I should tend to overcome the ceiling of exchange bandsset above $ 1,400 By July 2025, according to the Extended Fund Facity (EFF) program agreement.
In a context of Net international reserves at critical levels (-u $ s 6,000 million) and with the government negotiating a additional disbursement of US $ 2,000 millionthe international organism insists on the need for a more competitive exchange rate to correct the overvaluation of the weight and strengthen the external position of the country.
The “External Sector Report 2025” of the IMF reveals that, in 2024, the real real exchange rate (reser for its acronym in English) was overvalued in a 18.9%according to the EBA Reer Index model, which implies that the official nominal exchange rate, which closed the year in $ 1,032 per dollarIt was insufficient to align the economy with macroeconomic foundations.
Accumulated inflation of 15.1% Between January and June 2025, according to the consumer price index (CPI), plus a 1.6% In July, it aggravates exchange backwardness. Meanwhile, the exchange band scheme, in force since April 2025 with a $1,000 (low monthly 1%) and a roof of $ 1,400 (which rises 1% monthly), limits the flexibility of the official exchange rate, which touched the $ 1,300 In mid -July.
The IMF calculator and the rigid limit of the band
Although somewhat cumbersome, the accounts speak. To determine the nominal exchange rate that should be governed in July 2025, the overvaluation of the 2024 reer must be corrected and fits by relative inflation, considering the differences with the commercial partners: that is, on the one hand, the overvaluation calculated by the IMF for last year would yield a balance of equilibrium change for that time around $ 1,227 (applying 18.9%).
To that we must add an adjustment for inflation until July 2025, which implies a 15.1% to June plus 1.6% in July. And to this the average inflation of the commercial partners (estimated at 2.5% per year) should be deducted for seven months. Thus, we would be in the $ 1395 area, that is, practically leaving the ceiling of the exchange band set by the government in its agreement with the IMF. In other words, the calculation indicates that the official dollar should quote on approximately $ 1,395 In July 2025 to keep the reer at its equilibrium level.
Although this value is within the range of exchange bands, the IMF warns in its report that the roof set by the government is restrictive to achieve a current account surplus of the 1.4% of GDP and accumulate reservations.
Negotiations for disbursement and dollar tensioning
Economy Minister Luis Caputo, seeks a additional disbursement of US $ 2,000 million To reinforce the reserves of the Central Bank, which did not meet the goal of accumulation of U $ S5,000 million established in the EFF agreement for the first review. The IMF board meeting, which the government itself bets on this Friday, July 25, could approve a “waiver” for this breach, but uncertainty persists. The filtration of this meeting failed to calm the markets, with the country risk climbing to the area of the 800 basic points.
The IMF has reiterated the need for a more flexible exchange ratesuggesting that exchange bands limit the ability of the BCRA to respond to market inflation and volatility. The official exchange rate found in the area close to $ 1,300, remains caught within this range, exacerbating the loss of external competitiveness.
Source: Ambito
