According to data from Central Bankon Tuesday of last week, the average of the interest rates offered by banks for fixed deadlines, known as the Badlar rate, It was 28.75 pointsits lowest level since March 10 of this year. For this Monday, I had already jumped 32,18.
For the economist Amilcar Collantethis situation “It was the product of the disorderly disarmament of the Lefisthat a priori was going to break down the rate and was the first movement that was seen, but that It was a bit abrupt“
THE TROPEZO DE LAS LEFIS
The monetary entity established on July 10 that Financial entities could no longer subscribe to Lefisone of the favorite instruments of banks for the daily management of their liquidity stocks.
“When the banks charged those maturities and did not redirect that liquidity towards the treasure, an excess of pesos appeared that disorder the market,” said ACM analyst Francisco Ritorto. As a result, about $ 9.8 billion moved to current accounts of the banks in the BCRA, What collapsed interest rates and pressed the dollar.
Given this situation, the Finance Secretariat He called an emergency tender for July 16. Over there, awarded only $ 4.7 billionbut validating rates of up to 47%, well above previous tenders. Meanwhile, the remaining weights were towards other instruments, such as stock market, which fired their yields during the last days, with peaks of up to 80% TNA.
“A lot of volatility is seen, also that The economic team wanted the rate to be endogenous, that is, it is determined by the marketbut it was quite messy, “said Collante.
Fixed deadlines: Does the rate shoot?
According to the data on Wednesday that the Central Bank compiled, the interest rates of the main banks They operate around 30%being eThe City Bank that maintains the lowest yield, with 26%. On the opposite sidewalk was the Macro Bankwith one TNA 34%. The list is completed by Galicia and ICBC, both with 31%; Santander, Nation and Credicoop with 30%; BBVA with 29.5% and the province with 29%.
He EPYCA economist, Eric Paniaguahe acknowledged that “there is possible that there is some movement in the fixed deadline rate, particularly because there has been a lack of liquidity in the system in recent weeks.” However, he emphasized that “It is highly unlikely that you have the same volatility that the Cajiones showed”.
First, he argued that the cion “They are usually much more sensitive to changes in the value of the rate, while the fixed term is more stable”. Second, he added that the bond “It is not an instrument that is usually used by the bulk of people who usually opt for fixed deadlines,”.
Similarly, Ricto explained that “the ration rates and those of fixed deadlines operate in different segments: one responds to the wholesale dynamics, the other is more associated with retail anchorist.” However, he stated that “in a scheme like the current one, Without an explicit policy rate that marks the floor, the conditions in one segment can influence the other“
Therefore, “when there are tensions in the very short term market, Banks can also be forced to move the rates offered to the public to retain deposits“
The balance with the dollar
Epyca analyst considered that the increase in The rate for fixed deadlines “would be an attenuating demand that the dollarprovided that fixed steps rates have historically uploaded in Argentina, the average saver, if it has not withdrawn, at least attenuated their demand for dollars, because They are the two favorite instruments by retail investors“
Meanwhile, ACM economist said “what is being seen It is a system more sensitive to liquidity shocks, without a clear reference and with spaced tenders“. He considered that” that sensitivity probably It is moderate as the operation of the new scheme is stabilizedbut in the meantime, the risk of momentary mismatches will continue present while the BCRA intervenes more reactively than preventive. “
For his part, Collante stated that “The whole system will have rates a little above what was the previous one”. In front, that “will depend on where the dollar and interest rate are balanced, to see if that is maintained or can go below.”
In addition, he argued that “the government will want the dollar to stabilize as soon as One of the pillars of economic growth was credit, which is already a bit slowed. ”
And he concluded: “If you add more interest rates, Surely for the private the active rate will be more expensivethen you start having a little problems, because that also generates noise in the real economy. “
Source: Ambito
