As of February 11 of last year, it was projected that soybeans would reach a yield of 38.5 quintals per hectare in the core region, but the end of the mentioned month was dry and registered a drop of 7.4 quintals per hectare. Currently the estimates are around 31.8 quintals per hectare, but the entity’s specialists pointed out that this number was not adjusted in the last 7 days, waiting for the rains to stop the decline, something that has not been done so far. has happened, apart from some uneven rainfall and less important than expected in the west and east of the region.
Indicators that worry
According to the Strategic Guide of the Stock Exchange, what it rained in the week did not change that 60% of the core region continues to be in scarcity and drought. 85% is filling grains and the rest is forming string beans. Another important indicator is that 45% of premium soybeans are in fair to poor conditions (bad 7%, fair 38%, good 45% and very good 15%) and, finally, there are no rains forecast for next week. .
The premium soybean meets a 45% of the crop in a fair to poor state and 85% is already in grain filling. “The absence of important rains in the last three weeks in the midst of a critical period for the first-class oilseed continues to lower the expected yields. In the zones more complicated by water scarcity, grain filling is highly compromised”, they remarked in the report.
The report also highlighted that 45% of second-class soybeans in the region are fair to poor. In addition, there is 10% in poor condition and 35% in fair condition, and this could be increased even more.
“80% of the lots are forming string beans (between R3 and R4), there is 12% that is still flowering (R2) and 8% more advanced starting to fill the grains (R5). In the center-south of Santa Fe, more than 50 mm are needed to overcome the critical period”, they highlighted from the entity.
In contrast, the international price of soybeans continues to climb, exceeding US$588 the ton, to reach its highest value in 10 months last Friday. In this way, it is once again close to US$600 per ton. The fundamentals of the rise were based on market concerns regarding the dry weather in South America and its impact on prices. “The deterioration in the crops in Argentina and Brazil could lead to a greater export demand for the US oilseed and gives support to the prices,” explained the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR).
In principle, this rebound in the price could be good news for foreign currency inflows to the country and for the foreign exchange market, as happened last year, when soybeans reached their highest price in nine years and this was reflected in a record entry of dollars into the country by the agricultural sector. However, something that seems to be positive, the high prices do not correspond to a good reason: it is expected that as a result of the drought there will be a lower quantity of exported volumes, so the rise in price would only serve to compensate for a lower harvest.
Source: Ambito
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