“The conversations are very advanced at this stage. The next step of these conversations will be to reach a technical agreement between the authorities (Argentines) and the technical personnel (Staff Report), and we believe that this can happen very soon,” He replied The spokeswoman of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Julie Kozack Within the framework of the traditional press conference offered by the agency this Thursday in Washington.
“Once the agreement has been reached, the Technical Staff will present the documents to the Executive Board for approval and consideration ” Kozack continued. Before the question of Scope If the Staff Agreement will rise to Board before the recess for vacation that will be carried out from August 1 to 15, the spokeswoman avoided giving a specific response to insist that it will be informed “on the date of a board meeting only once the staff report has been completed ”. After the Board meets it would be known when the agency will send the US $ 2,000 million.
Also in an elusive way implied that The Board of Directors, on Tuesday, met informally to talk about Argentina Saying “that it is not unusual that there are meetings with the Board of Directors to talk a wide range of issues.”
Previously, he insisted again that “The program has had a solid start. It has been based on the continuous implementation of restrictive macroeconomic policies, including a solid fiscal anchor and a restrictive monetary policy. ”
In reference to monetary and exchange policy, he pointed out that “The transition to a more flexible exchange rate regime has been fluid, disinflation has resumed and Argentina has recovered access to international capital markets earlier than initially planned within the framework of the program”
He highlighted again, as he usually does, that “Our technical staff and the authorities are very involved in these conversations ” And giving an idea of time pointed out “that are also in an advanced stage “ although he excused himself from “providing more details for now since we will give them space to conclude the conversations.”
Although he anticipated that “we believe that an agreement with the staff could be realized very soon.”
Revision
The Government is waiting for the IMF to approve the first review of the extended facilities program signed last April. As it has transcended, the agency’s directory could address the issue on the end of the month.
At stake is a disbursement of 2,000 million dollars. Argentina has been fulfilling almost all the goals agreed with the agency. In some cases in excessas with the treasure accounts surplus.
However, the country did not reach the objective of accumulation of reservations committed to this first part of the program. According to private calculations, breach was close to 4,000 million dollars.
Private analysts point out that the official driving refrained from buying dollars with the purpose of keeping contained the price of the currency and, thus, contributing to the slowdown in inflation. This objective was achieved since the index rose 1.6% last June, breaking the 2% barrier for the second consecutive month.
But since the middle of last month, The Ministry of Economy changed its strategy and the treasure began buying dollars in the Spot of the official market, in what was interpreted as a gesture of goodwill to approach the commitment of accumulation of reserves.
In this sense, the expectation of the market is that, after the negotiations that the technicians of the Treasury Palace and the agency between Buenos Aires and Washington maintained in recent weeks, The background finally grants a dispensation (Waiver) For this breach and unlocks the next disbursement.
It should be noted that the accumulation of reserves is a sensitive issue for the IMF, as it was reflected again in a document released this week in which the agency warned about the weaknesses presented by the external position of Argentina. This results from the analysis of the national economy within the framework of the report on the external sector in which the world situation in this area is evaluated.
The Paper points out that “the external position in 2024 was weaker than the implicit level in medium -term foundations and desirable policies.” The agency recognizes that “Economic foundations have improved substantially since the late 2023, but net international reserves are still critically low and the spreads of sovereign debt, although they have decreased dramatically, remain high.”
It specifies that, in May 2025, the real exchange rate was generally without changes in relation to the levels of the end of 2024, in the context of the adoption of a new monetary and exchange regime and the weakening of the US dollar. The organism evaluation suggests an average gap (delay) of the exchange rate by 2024 in a range of 6 to 18%. This implies a gap at the end of the year between 15 and 25%.
However, local private studies relativize these data. It is estimated that, after the recent jump of the dollar and the depreciation of the American currency in the international marketso far this month The actual multilateral exchange rate recorded a 16% improvement.
The fund argues that “the recent transition to a more robust monetary and exchange regime (move from a mobile parity to a flexible exchange rate within relatively broad bands) It allows a exchange rate more determined by the market, although strict macroeconomic policies are still necessary to achieve a solid trade balance and an accumulation of reserves. ”
In this matter, the report indicates that net international reserves, after becoming negative by 11,000 million dollars, increased during 2024, but warns that The accumulation has been more difficult since the middle of last year, located in a negative field of 6,000 million dollars at the end of March 2025.
While it points out that “The situation of the reserves has stabilized since the implementation of the new program and the establishment of new exchange bands in mid -April,” the evaluation of the fund is that “the coverage of the reserves remains inadequate”. It is estimated that they would be About 23% of the necessary level according to IMF calculations in the late 2024.
After the disbursement of 12,000 million dollars made by the IMF within the framework of the new agreement, the situation improved, but anyway according to private calculations, currently reserves They would represent only approximately half of the necessary.
Source: Ambito
