The Governors of the provinces They maintain pressure to approve the projects that would convert to the Tax to Transfer of Fuels and carbon dioxide in a co -participible tribute and the distribution of the National Treasury Contribution Fund (ATN).
Is that, in principle, They could keep $ 1.5 billion more Regarding the money they currently receive from the Nation for co -participation or non -automatic transfers, according to estimates of the Mediterranean Foundation.
“Considering both reforms, the Total fiscal cost for the national public sector (SPN) It is estimated at 0.18% of GDP if the measures had been in force in 2024, and 0.21% in 2025. It would be about near the 60% of the national financial surplus of 2024 and first semester of 2025 ”, The entity with headquarters in Córdoba warns.
According to official data in the first half of the year the government accumulated a primary surplus equivalent to 0.9% of GDP and a financial one of 0.4%.
Provincial complaints
The debate He was raised in the last week by the Government of Santa Fe through his Minister of Public Works, Lisandro Enrico, With a hard criticism of the Federal Government for what defines as “abandonment” of the maintenance of the national broken that crosses the province. The provincial government installed huge Red posters in the junction of national routes in which they indicate that this path is the responsibility of the nation.
The governors’ approach is that SI The fuel tax is destined for the maintenance of the roads and the government of Javier Milei does not do so, so that the funds pass to them.
The Mediterranean Foundation report states that with that money the provinces could increase the expenditure to 1.5% of GDP. “The fuel reform would mean that the provinces go from receiving 25.47% to 57.02% of their collection ”Points out the report.
As for Atn the report says that “the reform would imply a net fiscal gain for the provinces, due to the difference between the resources they will receive automatically (58.8%) and the amount that would reach them in a discretionary way. ”
“With the reforms, all provinces would receive more resources. If they had been in force in 2024, extra resources per ATN and fuel would have been 197% higher To those observed, or 170% in the first quarter of 2025, ”says the study.
Determining impact on the nation’s accounts
But the impact on the fiscal accounts of the nation would be decisive. If the rest of the reform is approved, such as the increase in retirement assets and the expansion of the moratorium for two yearsit is likely that in 2026 the federal government will be in deficit.
According to Profit consultants, based on the Congress Budget Office (OPC), This year the opposition’s packet could affect 0.73% of the internal gross product (GDP). Measured against the goal of Javier Milei’s maximum of reaching 1.6% of favorable balance, this year there could be a 0.87% surplus. ANDN 2026 The cost of the package would be 1.37% of GDP. So that the problem would appear next year. If not mediating a firmer economic recovery, the income and expenses numbers would be very even.
Source: Ambito
