A million human people bought dollarsduring the month of June, for a total of u $ s2416 million, while 544,000 chose to sell currencies for US $ 396 million. Getting closer to elections, The purchase volume showed an acceleration compared to May, when $ 2262 million had been acquired.
The data is detached from the last report of the evolution of the exchange market and exchange balance of the Argentine Central Bank (BCRA). It should be noted that the elections will take place on October 26 of this year.
A few months after the elections, retail sales of dollars grow
With this result, Net retail purchases during the second full month without exchange stocks were located at US $ 2020 millionnumber that also exceeded the level of May, which had closed with a total of U $ S1954 million.
In addition to treasurement, A high currency demand was observed to cancel credit card expenses linked to tourism. Net expenses under the concept “trips, tickets and other card payments” climbed to U $ S863 million.
“70% of expenses for ‘trips, tickets and other card payments’ are directly canceled by customers with foreign currency fundswhich reduces the deficit impact of these consumptions on the change market. These funds are received by the entities and then sold, so they constitute anchor for the change market, “warned the Central Bank in the last report of the evolution of the change market and exchange balance.
In parallel, The current exchange balance account recorded in June a US $ 2158 surplus millions. This result was traction by income in the “goods” account for US $ 3376 million, partially compensated by net expenditures in the accounts “Services”, “Primary Income” and “Secondary Income”, which totaled US $ S744 million, US $ 465 million YU $ S9 millionrespectively.
Dollar: 40 consultants put value to the ticket after the elections
A survey that collects projections of more than 40 banks and consultants anticipates that the official dollar could close 2025 at $ 1355.8 and climb up to $ 1589.8 towards the end of 2026. Estimates, disseminated in a focuseeconomics report, occur in a context of renewed exchange pressure that has gained strength again since July.
“Both exchange rates (both the officer and the parallel) are expected to weaken by the end of the year. The focuseeconomics panelists expect the weight to end 2025 to $ 1355.8 per dollar and 2026 to $ 1589.8 per dollar“The report points out.
The projections show a scenario of moderate but persistent devaluation. By 2025, the average estimates is located near $ 1.37, although with notable differences between consultants.
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Among the most conservative forecasts for next year are Credicorp Capital ($ 1,150), Econometric ($ 1,164), Pecco Economics ($ 1,229) and E2 Economics ($ 1,245), which propose an exchange rate just above the current values, in line with a more contained exchange policy.
At the other extreme, the highest projections by 2025 correspond to Empiria Consultores ($ 1.516), Oxford Economics ($ 1,504), Invecq Consulting ($ 1,500), Capital Economics ($ 1,500) and LCG ($ 1,450). Econviews ($ 1,453), balances ($ 1,440) and Analytica ($ 1,434), with a more depreciated vision of weight.
The biggest divergences appear in the forecasts by 2026. Oxford Economics projects a dollar to $ 2,092 and Mapfre Economics places it at $ 2.314, leading the highest estimates. They are still balancing ($ 1.925), Econviews ($ 1,801) and, with similar figures, Economics and Invecq capital (both with $ 1,800). Eco Go is also among the highest forecasts, with an estimate of $ 1,796.
On the side of the most moderate projections for that year, there are Pecco Economics ($ 1,246), Credicorp Capital ($ 1,250) and Econometric ($ 1,300), together with VDC Consultant ($ 1,399) and Quantum Finance ($ 1,394).
Source: Ambito
