The closure of the first part of the year shows a high volume of purchase of tickets and currencies by companies, families and individuals, not seen from the final stretch of the management of Mauricio Macri.
The bets of “Carry Trade” could continue to look attractive, hoping that the interest rate in pesos will win the depreciation of the currency, however, the Argentines, once again, made clear their vote in favor of the dollar, especially after the flexibility of the stocks. This is how So far this year, the level of treasury in foreign currency of the non -financial private sector, especially families and individuals, according to the latest data from the Central Bank (BCRA), has reached the a whopping of US $ 8,767 million. Such a level of treasure, also called by the market as “capital escape”, It was not seen since the capital departure intensified in July 2019 in the Pre-Paso period.
It is worth noting that it is what until last month the BCRA called “formation of external assets” (FAE) and now renamed “Buy-sale of tickets and currencies without specific purposes”. The truth is that beyond the official name or the one that awarded the market, the flow of foreign currency is clearly negative reflecting the tenor of the demand for tickets and currencies to treasure, in the local market, in the external, or in some lair either the safe, potted or mattress, etc.
It should be noted that This negative flow, which impacts on the future of the change market, was concentrated on the second quarter, that is, from the implementation of the stocks, fundamentally, for people. Since in the first quarter there were actually “unleashing”, that is, capital repatriation for US $ 531 million composed of US $ 369 million net sales of bills and the rest for repatriation of investments abroad. That is, 69% of the positive net flow was in the form of ticket sales.
This good quarter, which chained fourteen consecutive months of “unleashing”, barely compensated what would come later. Because In the second quarter, already with the flexibility of the stocks, the treasury climbed Au $ S9.298 million, where 59% was in the form of net purchases of bills and the rest of investments abroad. In May the treasurement grew by 60% compared to April and in June 26% compared to the previous month, thus duplicating in three months. So that The balance of the first semester shows a capital exit of US $ 8,767 million composed of 58% ticket purchase and the rest transfers abroad.
In this regard, the changes recorded in this second quarter do not stop attention since last April the treasure was mostly (92%) under the net ticket purchase figure. Instead, Since May, the participation of the purchase of tickets began to reduce and the transfers and investments abroad was gaining ground that went on to represent 46% and 54% in May and June, respectively.
What happened in June in the financial system?
A separate paragraph deserves what happened in the financial system last June. According to the exchange balance of the BCRA last month, the operations of the exchange financial account of the financial sector were deficient at US $ 725 million due to the Increased possession of assets in foreign currency of the entities for US $ 1,275 million (which make up the general position of changes, PGC) and for the subscription of securities with foreign currency for US $ 58 million. These expenditures were, partially, compensated by net income from financial loans and credit lines for US $ 593 million and for loans of international organizations and others for US $ 15 million.
So the banks closed June, and the semester, with a PGC stock of US $ 8,571 million, which meant an increase of 17% monthly. This increase is explained by the increase in currency possession of US $ 1,214 million and, to a lesser extent, in the possession of tickets for US $ 61 million. In this way, the possession of foreign currency tickets totaled US $ 5,186 million at the end of the month, which represented 61% of the PGC that banks maintain in their treasures to meet the movements of local deposits in foreign currency and the needs of the gear market.
As for the Dollar futures market, banks as a whole closed June with a position sold at foreign currency for US $ 191 million, raising their position sold compared to the closure of the previous month at about US $ 92 million. During June, the entities sold US $ 165 million in institutionalized markets and bought US $ 73 million directly to “Forwards” customers. In this regard, it is worth differentiating what the foreign and national capital entities did: the former bought US $ 19 million and closed with a net position of US $ 322 million, while the second sold US $ 111 million and finished the month with a net buying position of US $131 million.
Source: Ambito
