Economy
IWF expects 2025 with mini growth in Germany
Finally, the international monetary fund was skeptical about the growth prospects for Germany. The economic experts have calculated for their summer update.
Lower US tariffs than feared and the billion-dollar package for infrastructure and defense makes the International Monetary Fund (IMF) look more optimistic about economic development in Germany. The Federal Republic is likely to achieve a mini growth of 0.1 percent in the current year, as the IMF announced. Previously, the currency fund, based in Washington, had predicted a stagnation. For 2026, the organization remains at an increase in 0.9 percent. Germany thus remains the problem child among the leading industrialized nations.
On Sunday, the European Union and the United States agreed on a 15 percent customs dial on most EU imports. Previously, US President Donald Trump had threatened to hit most EU products 30 percent from August 1st. The new regulation now also applies to cars, semiconductors and pharmaceutical products. For certain goods such as aluminum and steel, the tariffs should be 50 percent unchanged.
Thanks to Ireland, the euro zone is better off
The IMF is also becoming more optimistic for the euro zone: the growth forecast rose to 1.0 percent – that is 0.2 percentage points more than previously expected. Among other things, this is due to the strong growth of the gross domestic product of Ireland – the country has exported a particularly large number of pharmaceutical products to the USA and invested there.
Among the leading industrialized nations of the euro zone, Germany remains in the back seats. It should run much better in Spain, where the experts continue to expect an increase of 2.5 percent. Next year, the euro countries should grow together by 1.2 percent.
For the global economy, the IMF now increased its forecast for the current year to 3.0 percent growth (plus 0.2 percentage points). The outlook for 2026 is now 3.1 percent after 3.0 percent before.
Growth by countries and regions
Land/Region 2025 (previous forecast) 2026 (previous forecast) Germany0.1 percent (0.0 percent) 0.9 percent (0.9 percent) Euro zone 1.0 percent (0.8 percent) 1.2 percent (1.2 percent) USA 1 percent (1.8 percent) 2.0 percent) worldwide (2.8 percent) 3.1 percent (3.0 percent)
Lower tariffs also have a positive effect for the USA
The IMF is also more optimistic for the United States: The US economy should now grow by 1.9 percent in 2025 and thus intended 0.1 percentage points more than before. The organization also justified the new forecast with lower tariffs – but at the same time warned that demand in the country cools down faster than expected.
At a press conference, the IMF was concerned about increasing import prices in the USA. This indicates that companies begin to transfer higher costs to their prices – in the end it means that the tariffs are borne by importers, retailers and ultimately by customers.
The experts expect that in 2026 tax incentives for investments of companies – here the IMF corrected its forecast for the USA by 0.3 percentage points to 2.0 percent.
Inflation remains a permanent topic
However, inflation in the United States should grow in the coming months. Tools make imports more expensive, which causes the production costs of many goods to increase. Companies could pass on the higher expenditure to consumers – according to IMF, this will boost inflation in the United States by the end of the year. In the export countries, on the other hand, reduced US demand causes companies to sit on more goods. To get rid of them, they could lower prices.
Overall, the IMF reduced its inflation forecast worldwide to 4.2 percent (minus 0.1 percentage points) for this year. In 2026, the experts continue to expect an inflation rate of 3.6 percent.
dpa
Source: Stern
