With marked heterogeneity between various sectors, the Economic activity bounced in June, showing an improvement of 0.7% monthly against Mayaccording to him General Activity Index (IGA-OJF) prepared by him Center for Economic Studies of Orlando J. Ferreres. Anyway, he failed to recover the level of February yet, after the collapse suffered in March. In interannual terms, growth was 7.4%.
This way, The first semester of the year closed with an accumulated rise of 6.4%but the short -term rebound still shows signs of exhaustion. So much so that the second quarter showed an expansion of just 0.5% Regarding the first, which implies a slowdown with respect to the advance of 1.3% that had been registered in the first quarter of the year.
“Beyond the recovery of June, in a broader look we see a slowdown in the expansion of the activity and greater heterogeneity between sectors”the report said.
Forward, Ferreres warns about a “Increased risk of deceleration”both for the brake on the recovery of real income as for the Contractive monetary policythat prioritizes inflationary combat with high and volatile rates.
Economic Activity: The sectors that promoted the June rise
The sectors of greater dynamism in June were Financial intermediation (+22.6% year -on -year), Electricity, Gas and Water (+11.6%), Mines and quarries (+9.7%) and Wholesale and Retail Trade (+9.5%). The manufacturing industrywith a rise of 6.2% year -on -year and an accumulated of 3.7% in the semester.
Within the industrial sector, growth concentrated on food —Improved by the crushing of grains and drinks – and in machinery and equipmentwho climbed more than 20% Thanks to the thrust of the Automobile manufacturing. Even so, if the Automotive productionthe rest of the industry grew 3.8%.
On the side of the energythe jump of electricity generation (12.8% annual) responded to greater residential consumption, favored by lower temperatures and a weak comparison base. He MINING SECTOR also showed a prominent performance: the Crude oil production 16.2% year -on -year increased, marking the greatest growth in 25 years.
Economic activity: the sectors where the contraction was felt
The only major sector that showed negative numbers was the agrowhich fell 3.5% in June. The decrease was explained by the decrease of 5.5% in the agricultural activitywhile the cattle raising 9%grew. In the accumulated semester, the primary sector set drags a 2.3 drop%.
Other sectors that were kept in negative field were the Social and health services (-1%), the Public Administration (-0.8%) and the Transportation and communicationswhich expanded just 2.3% per year.
Although the year -on -year growth of June looks strong, much is explained by the low comparison base: in June 2024, the activity had fallen 3.2%. In this sense, the Economy still fails to consolidate a robust trajectory.
The rebound observed in the second quarter failed to reverse the impact of the strong contraction of March or the effects of a weakened available income context and the rates of real rates. The Ferreres report states that if the improvement of real income is not accelerated, the activity could stagnate again.
Source: Ambito
