Loans in foreign currency broke their historical roofas detached from the latest data of the Central Bank. Thus, the debt stock in dollars that the private ones have It is the highest since at least 2003with more than U $ S16.8 billion And he went up more than 55% So far from 2025. For the remainder of the year, a slowdown in dollars is expected, product of, among other reasons, the volatility of the fees in pesos and the pre -election climate.
In that way, The previous brand of US $ 16,612 million was exceeded which was reached on May 16, 2018, during the presidency of Mauricio Macri. In Delphos Investing They celebrated the novelty and assured that “this milestone reinforces the recovery of the financial system, particularly credit, which emerges as one of the great beneficiaries of the new economic model.”
On this point, they affirmed that the financial intermediation sector “It reflects it clearly”since the economic activity of that sector “is 10% above the maximum of 2023 and in levels not seen since September 2018 “. Anyway, they clarified that “Loans in foreign currency do not yet dominate the total credit to the private sector”because the credit in pesos “It grows at a real 80% rate” And it is still “20% below the maximum 2018 in real terms.”
The appetite of the export sector
Consulted by Scopethe economist Jorge Carrera He considered that “he would give the feeling that there is an expectation from the person who is taking a credit in dollars that there will be no changes in the exchange rate so large that he will not be able to pay.”
And he added: “We can also say it in a slightly more realistic way, it may be that all those who are taking credit in dollars, in general, They have prices that know that in some way, if there will be a modification in the exchange rate, they will accommodate“
In line, the partner of First Corporate Finance Advisors, Guillermo Barberohe explained to this medium that “companies that are linked to income in dollars (oil, gas, mining, agriculture), are the ones that mostly access the credit in dollars, because it is those companies that are linked to export dollars.”
Short term deceleration
Career He said that the volatility observed in the rates in pesos during the last weeks, “It is likely that the entire credit market also influences to be much more cautious“. On the opposite path, Barbero said that “The volatility of the rates in pesos calls you to take dollars”however, he also stressed that there was a slowdown in dollars in the second quarter, a situation that expects to be deepened for the elections. .
“From here to October I do not believe that there is any loans in any kind, because the banks are more reluctant to place credits in this part prior to the elections. We have already seen that in previous important election processes, where there is always a retraction of the credit supply,” he said.
Carrera said that Dollar credit “is reaching a roof” and cited three reasons why this could happen in the short term. The first reason is the uncertainty for after the elections and the possibility that “the IMF requires some type of adjustment in the exchange rate.” The second is that “There is also a lot And the third is that “The economy is cooling”.
Anyway, Barber considered that In the long term “there is a lot of place” to grow the operations in dollars in Argentina. “The relationship between loans and the level of activity that Argentina has It is very low with countries in the region. Place to continue growing will be, and especially if you begin to develop everything that is foreign trade, export And to some extent also the import, “he concluded.
Source: Ambito
