The tensions in the market were intensified since the three key variables -dólar, inflation and rates- stopped converging, giving way to greater volatility. The departure from the Lefis caused a rise in interest rates and added extra pressure to the currency in the middle of a growing demand for pre -electoral coverage. The Consumer Price Index (CPI)Meanwhile, it remains at bay but the huge rise of rates will bring in the long term a ponytail to the activity.
The last tender was an radiography that confirmed that there is a problem to which the government still does not find the solution. The National Treasury faced debt maturities on Tuesday for $ 11.8 billion (approximately US $ 9,100 million), and managed to renew 76% of the commitments although Validated rates reached worrying levelswith the short -term capitalizable letters (LECAPS) paying until 65% annual effective rate (ASD).
This huge shot in the rateit brings rigged Movements in the dollar and inflation. In this regard, the economist Juan Manuel Telecheahe spoke with Scope And he analyzed: “I would say that several weeks ago that From the elimination of the Lefis we see the upward rates. The manual logic would say that The increase in rates should help the dollar contain but the market sees a lot of noise and that also hits the foreign currency“
Regarding the inflationconfirmed that, In principle “I would not be impact”or at least that is what marks the measurements of the consultants. “In the medium term, that is, in a few months, the rates can have a very strong effect on economic activity” He warned, because The consumption will be affected, and the companies of payments of the companies, and that could have to impact long -term inflation.
“The current account rates rose approximately 2,400 basic points since the beginning of the month. A direct impact on the cost of financing of companies and in the activity. In the last bidthe Economist Claudio Capraulodirector of ANALYTICS
The expert also believes that All decisions of economic policy seek to contain inflation. “Anyway, different indicators show that the sustainability of the current scheme became more fragile”he alarmed.
Market criticism for the end of the “endogenous” rate
With the end of the monetary policy of fees and the transfer to the monetary aggregate system, The government together with the Central Bank intended to generate an “endogenous rate”, which is one that is not fixed directly by the BCRA, It is determined by the market, depending on the supply and demand of money. But with The deprolys out of the Lefis and the need to replenish passive passes to control liquidity pressures, the market began to doubt the scheme.
“Regarding the endogeneity of the interest rate in pesos, After having seen the BCRA operating repo during the past week and the start of this, the statement does not resist analysis And little favor does the credibility of speech and official diagnosis continue to insist with that. The rate is conditioned by the dollar level, at best and forcing the discursive. Which is not endogenous. Rather, it will be what has to be so that the FX does not exceed $ 1,300“They said from Outlier.
The prospects with the dollar
Regarding the dollar, from the Consultant 1816 They recalled that The real exchange rate is at new 14 months (although it remains at historically appreciated levels) thanks to what “Consumer prices did not react to the nominal depreciation of the weight. ” Thus, we can remember that, so far in July, The official dollar accelerated its rise by moving 7.8%.
This climbing occurred despite the fact that there was A strong official intervention in the futures curve. This week it was known that The open interest (that is, the amount of contracts in force) reached a new maximum after several years with a total coverage for US $ 7,071 million. In this way, from the City they ensure that the government remains in search of Decrease devaluation expectations by increasing your participation in this market.
Consulted by scope in relation to whether the rates will impact the price of the dollar during August, economist Gustavo Berhe replied: “I don’t think I changed too much in the short term, therefore I would expect it to continue around $ 1,300, beyond the upward rearrangement of the rates. The important thing would be that the volatility of the fees be reduced in order to Do not affect the economic activity or expectations of agents over time“
Inflation: Is there a transfer to prices or follows?
From Eco Go They assured that “Regarding inflation, for now the transfer at prices remains low. The countercara was the dollarization process, which was exacerbated”. Despite this, however, they will influence the prospects of the month that is about to start, The increases planned in transport, the fees of prepaid medicine, cable and mobile telephony, rentals and fuels In most cases with rises above last inflation.
According to the latest publication of the Central Bank (BCRA), For the following months there was a slight correction of inflation projections, but the monthly figures close to 2%were maintained.
Source: Ambito
