The recent rise from Official dollar value leaves Argentina in a much better position than the one I had seven months ago to face your own competitiveness problems. The correction that was carried out, more than anything in July, He left the real multilateral exchange rate (TCRM) slightly below the historical average.
This was stated by the strategist Chief of Cohen Financial Allies, Martín Polo, In a talk with investors. “We have to real exchange rate against the dollar rose 10% and If we take Against the basket of our business partners, we are closer to a gain of 20% than the truth is a lot ”, Pole pointed out.
The market analyst considered that “It was not in our calculations that the real exchange rate could improve 20% in just 7 months.”
With that strong correction of the distortions that the dollar had “cheap”, In Cohen they hope to see that with these exchange rates more exports and more foreign currency financing are encouraged And demand is discouraged, either via imports, less demand for services and the formation of external assets.
Taking like Base the real exchange rate of December 17, 2024Cohen’s analysis indicates that the exchange rate against the dollar is at a 103 level, while the average of 30 years is closer to 110.
“What is the balance – Pole asked – we don’t know it, because Argentina in the last 30 years, always those exchange rates did not end well. ” However, he said that “if we want to take andn account would be a little more to reach the historical average. ”
“More or less that smell that the market has, even the International Monetary Fund itself (IMF), that the exchange rate, beyond the improvement we are having in these months. It is 15% or 20% below what it should be to be a little quieter, ”he said.
For the economist of Cohen Financial Allies, The United States currency “still has that way to go”. “The good thing is that he already recovered a lot,” he added.
Polo explained that “The fall of the exchange rate that we had had towards the end of last year, caused us certain doubts As for the external front ”.
“Wellwas that debate, the exchange rate is late, it is not late. The experience is showing that the December exchange rate last year I was very low and obviously needed to recover. We are seeing good news, ”he closed.
Source: Ambito
