Different analysts note that lEconomic activity is cooling, after having spent a peak of recovery in February. According to the consultant Analytica In June the economy would have grown just 0.1% Regarding the previous month.
“Economic activityA 4 months argued and still does not recover the level of 2022. Entering the second semester still No dynamic factors are observed, High interest rates and monetary and exchange volatility can limit the growth path, “says the consultant.
The consultant elaborated her own Leading Analytic Activity Index (ILA), that uses high frequency data (including sectoral indicators, consumption and credit), with high correlation with the monthly estimator of the Economic Activity (EMAE) of INDEC.
In that sense, the report indicates that “For July the first data show a positive trend, being that loans increased 1.8% real without seasonality And consumer trust did it by 2%; The demand for electric power of large users showed a slight contraction of 0.1%. “
The activity in May
May Emae had a slight fall compared to April (-0.1%) marked by sector heterogeneity; Some of the most important sectors showed monthly contraction: construction (-4.1%), wholesale trade, retail and repairs (-1.5%) and manufacturing industry (-1%).
While others with lower incidence They showed an improvement as is the case of fishing (+13.1%)agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry (+1.6%) and the exploitation of mines and quarries (+1%).
In interanual termss The recovery was 5%. 51% of this variation was explained by wholesale trade, retail and repairs (+10%), financial intermediation (+25.8%) and manufacturing industry (+5.0%).
Only two sectors fell compared to May 2024: Electricity, Gas and Water (-9.0%) and Public Administration and Defense (-0.9%), although both sectors have little weight on the total economy.
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Source: Ambito
