After drilling 2% in May and staying under that threshold in June, the July inflation It would remain in that line, despite the recent exchange escalation, according to the main consultants of the City of Buenos Aires. He Consumer Price Index (CPI) would be positioned above June (+1.6%) by a pressure of seasonal and increased regulated, as well as there was a uncertainty quota.
The strong increase of the dollar during July (+14%) still did not translate into a price increase. So it is, the IPC of the seventh month of the year would oscillate, according to the consultants, between 1.8% and 1.9%.
The vegetables scored the largest monthly rise since March
In July, the vegetables they suffered their greatest increase since last March, as they explained since C&T Consultantsalthough the most increased item was Recreation and culturewhich reflects the rise in prices in tour packages for winter holidays. Secondly, several goods and services remained for the variation of the toiletries.
“Household equipment and maintenance was in third place, with great influence of the increase in the salary of the domestic employees defined on the end of the month, after several months without adjustment” They highlighted from the consultant María Castiglioni and Camilo Tiscornia.
Non -alcoholic food and drinkswith a rise of 23%, It was located in fourth place. The vegetables played a key role in the monthly rise in this item; Panified and non -alcoholic beverages stood out among the rest of the components that showed very limited or even slight falls.
The inflation of Non -alcoholic food and drinksaccording to the measurement of LCGgives 0.7% in the four weeks of July.
Exchange uncertainty and its impact on July inflation
On the Julio CPI they also played a key role a series of events that increased uncertainty and hit the demand for pesos: The negative ruling for the YPF cause, the approval in the Congress of a reform package that compromises fiscal balance and exchange volatility after the expiration of the Lefis, as explained from the Foundation Freedom and Progress.
Such is so, that the Official dollar climbed 14% in Julywith a strong impulse during this last week. Now, as he said in dialogue with Scope The financial analyst Andrés Reschini“It will be key that The passage at prices is as limited as possible “, As well as “we will have to see if in August the agro increases the rhythm of liquidations or not, the electoral perspectives for September in Buenos Aires and in October the national legislative that can influence the humor of the market.”
July inflation: will be below 2%
The price variation, according to LCG, will be 1.8%, being the most optimistic projection. So much, Freedom and Progress Foundation, C&T consultants, balances and ANALYTICS -An subtractions that measure the last week- they foresee that the CPI be located at 1.9% during the seventh month of the year.
“July’s exchange volatility did not move to prices, which allowed the CPI Eugenio Maríchief economist of the Freedom and Progress Foundation.
Source: Ambito
