Beyond the encouraging data, the staff warns about some risks. Among them, he mentions the medium term elections and the excessive dependence of the short -term portfolio inputs to finance the current account. In addition, he points out that “the exchange rate would continue to serve as a shock absorber, and the market interest rates would be allowed to rise as necessary.”
Next, the main macroeconomic projections.
GDP
He growth in 2025 It remains unchanged in the 5.5 %largely backed by a solid remaining solid recovery in the form of V of the second semester of 2024 and a stronger internal demand than provided in the first semester.
The impulse of growth is expected to be moderate during the rest of the year, given the restrictive macroeconomic policies, the least world growth and a certain weakening of the real real exchange rate (TCER).
After 2025, It is projected that real GDP growth is practically unchanged and converges around 3 % in the medium term, although with minor contributions from net exports.
Inflation
After a temporary rebound in inflation in March, It is projected that annual inflation descends to about 20 % -25 % by the end of 2025 (compared to 18 % -23 % at the time of program approval) and reach a single digit by the end of 2026, assuming that macroeconomic policies remain restrictive and properly balanced.
Fiscal
The base scenario now assumes a primary surplus of 1.6 % of GDP in 2025 (compared to 1.3 % at the time of program approval), in line with the objective of the authorities.
It will be necessary to maintain A strict spending discipline, together with tax reforms in tax matters, co -participation in income and retirement, to consolidate the fiscal anchor over time.
It is projected that the primary surplus increases around 2.5 % of GDP in the medium termas the general costs of interest increase with elimination Total exchange restrictions and renewed access to international capital markets.
Fiscal consolidation will boost the deflation and a more solid balance of payments, while reducing the current burden on monetary policy.
Public debt
According to the base scenario, the public debt remains sustainable in the medium term, although not with high probability.
Despite the tax adjustment and the advances in the extension of the maturities of the internal debt, the sovereign risk remains elevated, which reflects the fragile reservation position of Argentina, its considerable gross financing needs and the still limited access to international capital markets.
That said, the continuous progress of the tax program and sustained access to markets have gradually contributed debt -related risks.
External balance
It is projected that the external current balance passes from a 1% surplus of GDP in 2024 to a deficit of 1.7% of the GDP this year (compared to a 0.4% deficit at the time of the approval of the program), driven by a solid growth of imports and a flexibility of exchange restrictions and imports.
This change marks an unprecedented advance in the macroeconomic path of the country, since, previously, Primary fiscal balances tended to match the pumps of the checking account.
It is expected that The current account deficit is more than compensated by a greater capital entry. which will allow a greater accumulation of reservations.
It is estimated that these entries exceed the forecasts at the time of the approval of the program, backed by sustained access to international capital markets (initially planned for early 2026), reforms to attract foreign direct investment in large -scale investment projects within the framework of the RIGI and a greater indebtedness of the business sector (from a relatively low base).
It is projected that The Net International Investment position of Argentina is remained positive, although with significant changes in its composition: reductions in public indebtedness in foreign exchange (since fiscal surpluses guarantee that access to the market is used to refinance the obligations of debt service in foreign currency in foreign currencies that overcome), accompanied by a reduction in the net position of external assets of the private sector
However, The sustainability of the balance of payments continues to depend on restrictive and properly balanced policies, as well as The successful implementation of the agreed strategy of accumulation of reserves, in line with a gradual convergence of the real real exchange rate (TCER) towards its medium -term balance.
Contingency plans
The report indicates that “that they are still high, it is imperative to establish contingency plans in the following aspects.
External scope
Persistent commercial tensions and geopolitical uncertainties could affect Argentina’s perspectives, including the weakness of raw material prices and the hardening of global financial conditions, although greater depreciation of the US dollar could help cushion these effects.
Advances in the achievement of a tariff agreement with the United States (whose negotiations continue) could offer some advantage, even through trade deviation.
Internal scope
The possible volatility before the mid -mandate elections could test the still incipient external reserves of Argentina.
Besides, The excessive dependence on short -term portfolio inputs to finance the current account could result in a sudden stop that could derail advances in stabilization.
Over time, A change towards a combination of unbalanced policies could also negatively affect competitiveness in key industries (Through the effects of Dutch syndrome), affecting the employment, growth and social sustainability of reforms.
In case Shocks arise, the authorities would have to activate the contingency plans agreed.
In this case, a decisive political response would be crucial to mitigate the impact.
The exchange rate would continue to serve as a shock absorber, and the market interest rates would be allowed to rise as necessary To support the demand for weights and debt refinancing efforts, thus as to limit the transfer of fluctuations of the exchange rate to consumer prices.
Meanwhile, Fiscal policies should harden as necessary through actions under the competence of the Executivesince this would relieve compensation between the stabilization of inflation, the accumulation of reserves and external stability.
The flexibility of the remaining exchange restrictions is programmed to preserve stability and encourage competitiveness, and could extend even more.
Source: Ambito
