He Economist Carlos Melconian launched a strong criticism of the country’s exchange situation, considering that The dollar still did not find its definitive value and that Net reservations of the Central Bank They remain in negative field, given the advent of debt maturities.
“This is not a balance exchange rate”He said in a radial interview, and explained that this condition is only achieved when the currency value is defined by the supply and demandwithout interventions.
The former president of National Bank He recalled that the problem in reservations began in August 2022 and that remains in force. “There are no reservations and Argentina has debt maturities. The change market does not generate the dollars that are needed, ”he said.
The massive withdrawal of dollars
Melconian also pointed out a fact that he considered worrying: in the last three months, the natural persons withdrew around US $ 10,000 million of the financial system. “That is the equivalent of the energy surplus of a whole year”He stressed.
For the economist, that leak reveals the level of distrust in the market. “That reflects distrust and lack of balance. When the dollar is not well fixed, these things happen, ”he explained.
Criticism of the exchange rate and the official intervention
In your analysis, Melconian He rejected the official intervention policy in the exchange market. “They sell future dollar to contain the price, demonstrating that the balance is fictional”, He explained. And he added:“When there is no stocks, there are positive reservations and access to voluntary credit, there the skull does not crack. But that is not today”
In his opinion, the dollar is not free or floating, and that translates into distortions that generate uncertainty.
The former National Bank recognized that the government of Javier Milei He managed to maintain the fiscal balance, although with methods that he considered extremes. “It was quirky. There was no goldsmith work. They came, kicked El Hormiguero and liquefied public spending, as in other stages of Argentine history“, said.
Although he valued the political support that accompanied that strategy, he warned that there are sectors that could press to modify it. “There are sectors that want to drew the expense, and that can generate tensions in the medium term”He warned.
Hard criticism tourism measures and import management
As for exchange competitiveness, Melconian He insisted that the current value of the dollar generates a negative incentive for the country. “This dollar encourages tourism abroad and imports. It affects the SMEs of the Conurbano”He stressed.
With irony, he added: “Argentina cannot be the second visiting country of Punta Cana or the Boca Copar Miami fan”
The economist asked to abandon rigid and ideological positions. “The solution is not just fiscal dogmatism. It takes common sense. The automaticity of the fiscal balance does not fix the mess of the dollar or the activity”He said.
According to his vision, the government must face a Comprehensive reform of the exchange schemegiven that “You can’t fix everything with a single tool”
Criticism of Furiase and Milei’s reasoning
Melconian He also referred to the recent sayings of the Director of the Central Bank, Federico Furiasewho defended the level of reservations. The economist replied: “The reserves have assets, yes, but also liabilities that are not from the central. That gives negative”
And, with an ironic tone, he recalled that “That same reasoning was explained by Javier Milei when he was still an economic columnist and not president”
On the closure of the interview, Melconian He asked to avoid useless debates about exchange backwardness and focused on the urgency of addressing the current situation. “It is not about discussing whether the sky is celestial or black. There is a delicate convergence process that must be handled. Meanwhile, we have this quilombo”, He concluded.
Source: Ambito
