A study conducted by the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) He anticipated that the decline in withholdings announced by the president Javier Milei Last week, added to the elimination of the exchange gap since April, it will make the Argentine countryside increase its production in approximately 13 million tonsthat is, in ten years that would result in a Extra contribution of US $ 28.8 billion.
The analysis carried out in this report uses as a base the “Agmemod Model” (by agricultural member state modelling), designed for the agri -food markets of the European Union and adapted to the situation of Argentina, taking into account their “Productive, economic and institutional characteristics.”
The measurements were made from the decline of withholdings announced by the President at the inauguration of the 2025 rural expo, where he said that the aliquots for corn, sorghum, wheat and barley remain at 9.5%, while the retention to the sunflower passed from 7% and 5% to 5.5% and 4%. In turn, the aliquots for the soy complex fall from 33% and 31% for bean and by -products, respectively, to 26% and 24.5%.
In addition to the measure, Rosario’s bag also highlights that this adds “to a change in the macroeconomic context of the country that took place in April of this year when Partial liberalization of access to change free market was announcedwhich operated in practice as an exchange unification, reducing the gap between the ‘official dollar’ and the ‘financial dollars’ to practically zero. “
In this way, the model projects that by 2035 agricultural production will increase 8% compared to the previous scenario, with higher withholdings and with exchange gap.
“The loss of aliquots and the virtual elimination of the exchange gap has led to the Proportion of ‘Dollar Cash’ that the producer receives on the FOB price without soy retentions is today at levels close to maximum since 2012comparable to the 2016-2018 period. In the other products, it is still below the period in which the aliquots were 0%, but close to 100%, ”says the analysis.
Regarding the country’s macroeconomic situation, he also points out that when “there is a gap, although the producer receives less’ bills for its sale, it also pays less’ dollars ticket ‘for its costs, so the impact of the gap is seen in the price of the dollar to which the producer can’ dollarize ‘its profitability once deducted all the production costs.” In that same sense, work remarks that “both the elimination of the gap and the Reduction of retentions aliquots directly impact producers’ decisions, encouraging them to hire more laborassign more surface and/or use technology superior “.
How much the projection of the field will increase, according to projections
In turn, he anticipated that by 2035, grain production will reach the 172.3 million tonswith a production value of US $50,100 million, based on the prices projected by the model itself.
Taking into account the planned variation, this implies that the value of agricultural production would increase in US $ 28,800 million between 2025 and 2035.
“This added value injection will result in a increase in the level of activity that exceeds primary production per se and involvesamong others, more freight, sales of inputs, financial and intermediation services, services related to storage and conditioning, greater activity for rural contractorsfor the agroindustrial complex and for the providers of SERVICES ASSOCIATED TO EXPORTamong others, ”concludes the study.
Source: Ambito
