The Economic activity gave new signs of heterogeneity In July. Although the official data of the monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) was not yet published by INDEC, the panorama drawn by private consultants and specialized organizations combines Sector and brake disparity In the rhythm of expansion.
On July 21 it was learned that the activity in May had shown a slight fall of 0.1% compared to April, although with an interannual expansion of 5% and an accumulated of 6.1% In the first five months of the year.
According to the consultant Inveqthe recovery initiated in 2024 It was interrupted in Februaryand from March -when the partial departure of the exchange rate began – The economy “began to stagnate”with frozen salaries, lower credit speed and consumption -sensitive sectors still depressed.
To this table is added the recent volatility in interest rates and the increase in financing in real terms, two factors that would have negatively influenced July.
For the moment, The Analytica consultancy Release some positive indicators in July: Private loans increased 1.8% real Without seasonality and consumer trust rose 2%. However, the demand for electrical energy Of large users, a key indicator for the industry, 0.1%fell slightly.
There are still no other data that demonstrate a clearer panorama about last month’s activity, however, Consumption performance also showed recovery signs In some niches, especially in the automotive market.
According to the Association of Automotive Concessionaires of the Argentine Republic (Acara), in July they patented 62,123 vehicles44% more than the same month of 2024 and 17.8% more than in June, marking the best month since 2018. In the case of Motorcyclesthey were recorded 54,060 unitswith an interannual growth of 33.9% and monthly of 12%.
The collection rose, but with VAT barely growing
In turn, in the fiscal, The Argentine Fiscal Analysis Institute (Iaraf) estimated that national collection grew in July 4.5% real year. If taxes linked to foreign trade are excluded -affected by the elimination of the country tax -, the increase would be 8%.
Among the taxes with the highest real increases stood out:
- Personal goods: +207.4% AI
- Export Rights: +50.6% AI
- Import rights: +31% AI
- Fuels: +16.7% Ia
- Gains: +17.7%. ia
- Social Security: +10.5% AI (representing 47% of total collection).
He VATmeanwhile, had a modest growth of 1% real interannualaffected by the suspension of exemptions in customs perceptions. The only significant fall was that of the Internal taxeswith a decrease of real 22.7%.
In the accumulated from January to July, Collection grew by 2% real year -on -yearand 9% real if the country tax is excluded. According to the IARAF, the taxes with the greatest fall were co-participated internal (-4.6%) and profits (-2%), while the ones who grew the most were personal goods (+75.5%), fuels (+69.6%) and import rights (+16%).
An economy in different speeds
The brake on growth is not homogeneous. As Invecq warns, persists “A dynamic of different speeds”: Sectors that continue to grow but with less impulse; others that still fail to get out of the internal recession; and items such as receptive tourism and hotel that remain below their performance in 2023.
That disparity is also highlighted by the consultant Vectorwhich in turn warns that, “There is no clear link between economic growth and improvement in real income”, Although a more direct relationship is perceived with the creation of formal employment, although with exceptions.
Within that framework, the consultant Balances He anticipated that he June EMAE It would have remained stable in unstacted terms and estimated an interannual growth of 6.5%. However, they clarified that the impulse was mainly due to a strong drag effect, especially agriculture, which grew 2.5% in that month. In the accumulated of the first semester, the activity would grow 6.2% year -on -yearbut with cooling signs towards the second semester. Therefore, balancing cut its growth projection of GDP 2025 to 4.5%.
Perspectives: statistical growth, but without traction
Consultants such as Invecq continue with the 5% growth projection of GDP by 2025, which responds more to technical factors. “That number is strongly influenced by the statistical drag of the second half of 2024 and the impulse of the first months of the year”, They point out.
The firm’s projection model estimates that the economy would close 2025 with a level of activity similar to the end of the previous year, which would imply real net growth of the Second semester would be just 1%.
Source: Ambito
