According to analysts of Nomuraif the labor market data had been published before the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the FED would have already cut interest rates. In that last decision, the agency decided to maintain the rate in the range of 4.25% at 4.50%waiting for new data that clarify the impact of Tariff policies Adopted by the Trump administration since April.
The weakness of employment, in the center of the stage
The report of non -agricultural payrolls Del BLS showed that the US economy generated Less jobs than expected in Julybut the most forceful fact was the downward review of the previous monthswhich questioned the strength of the labor market. In particular, the figures of May and June were significantly cutwhich suggests a deeper deceleration of what was initially thought.
“Unless economic data improve considerably in the coming weeks, a cut in September seems like a natural step,” they said from Nomura. According to him Fedwatch Tool De CME Groupthe chances of a cut of a quarterfinal at the September 17 and 18 meeting they already amount to 80%.
The discussion on Wall Street now focuses on itself in this deceleration is a Temporary effect product of the “tariff shock” driven by Trump, or if it responds to a Structural loss of impulse in private consumption and investment.
Political climbing: Bls dismissal and pressure on the Fed
The employment report also unleashed a new chapter in the tension between the White House and the technical organisms. Hours after the data was known, President Trump announced the dismissaldirector of the BLS, whom she accused – without providing evidence – of manipulating statistics. The official had been confirmed by the Senate with a large bipartisan majority.
Trump also said that in the next few days will appoint a new governor of the Fedafter the Adriana Kugler resignationwho left his position ahead of time. Among the names that sound to replace it are Kevin Hasett, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller and Scott Besent. The decision could directly influence the future orientation of US monetary policy.
The president maintained his rhetoric against the head of the Fed, Jerome Powellwhom he described again as “too angry, too stupid and too political,” reiterating his demand for a IMMEDIATED TRUG OF RATES.
The context is aggravated by the New Round of Tariff Arranged by Trump last Thursday, which includes increases for several countries. For analysts, these measures are generating a Commercial uncertainty climate that could further affect investment and employment.
Despite the controversies, the former BLS director, William Beachdefended the integrity of the data published by the office: “I do not believe that there are foundations for that dismissal. BLS professionals are some of the most competent and reliable public servants in the country.”
Source: Ambito
