The Sustainability of the leading team strategy Luis Caputo of extracting pesos from the market through Debt instruments that pay capitalizable intereststo obtain a better number of financial fiscal surplus month by month, it begins to question the market.
Operators warn that, With the very high level of current fees, up to 65% per year against inflation that could be 35% this year, The debt in national currency can be unmanageable since the liability would grow above the expansion rate of the GDP.
This year, according to the IMF Report Report of the first review of the April Agreement, the Government would avoid counting for the financial deficit the equivalent of 1.2% of the PBI of interests of the LECAPSa figure that already looks important.
Some analysts distrust that number, since they consider that it would be part of negotiations with the organism’s technicians. And they point out that it could be greater.
In fact, in Financial allies are estimates of interest that capitalize the LECAPS per year are higher. Consider that the stock of such letters June 30 was $ 36.1 billionthat at a rate of 3.5% monthly, equivalent to 50% per year they yield $ 18.4 billion. That equivalent to 2.1% of GDP estimated at $ 864.6 billion for all 2025.
In addition, they warn that The current debt stock in pesos is equivalent to 20.3% of GDPby adding $ 175.7 billion. Of them, $ 137 billion are bonds adjustable for inflation (CER), that accrue interest for $ 36.7 billion, at an equivalent rate of 26% per year. The Linked dollar bonds total $ 2,531 million, which pay an annual rate of 42.6%, which involves about $ 1078 million more.
That is to say, If all the interests that will accrue the bonds in pesos are added, equivalent to 6.5% of GDP Cohen’s analysis concludes financial allies, above the GDP growth ratewhich also adjusts for inflation in nominal terms.
The debate began on social networks during the weekend, Pablo Quirno, the Secretary of Finance, came out to clarify in his social account X that “with very conservative parameters and still capitalizing on interest, the debt/GDP is projected to decrease”. He clarified that “it is wrong” to ensure that if the interests of the LECAPS were accounted for “it would be passed from surplus to deficit since the agreed tax measurements are carried out based on a box.”
The market look
“It is wrong to say that they are ‘under the line'” because gives an idea that they are not counted and they are counted as debt ”, The official explained who said that “when accounted for as debt, what should be considered is its sustainability.”
Fernando Corvaro, CEO of Pampa Capital He said in this regard that “the discussion of the capitalizable interests of the LECAPS derives in reviewing whether the debt/GDP ratio increases or decreases.” “If it decreases it is because the debt is sustainable in the long term. On the one hand, it goes up by the capitalization of LECAP, On the other hand, go down the payment of amortization and interests of the bonds in dollars paid with fiscal surplus. (Added to the increase in GDP), ”he concludes.
Martín Polo, chief economist and research of Financial Allies He pointed to investors in a talk: “We do not mean that we are In a critical situation, much less, just say there is a topic that we have to continue seeing that it is the debt in pesos. ”
“The lecaps stock went up, obviously it now increased by the Lefis part that went to Lecaps This pay a monthly interest rate, let’s put an average of 3.5% for more or less than 50% annual effective ”, He added.
Polo estimated that “this is a Interest load of 2 points from GDP That the public accounts that today the Base Caja (supérávit of the National Public Sector) does not see it, not even the accrued because all this is capitalized ”.
“Then we have one A debt and interest capitalized per year of almost 6 to 7 points of GDP. Then the public debt will continue to rise beyond having a primary surplus. ”The analyst added
The economist of Cohen Financial Allies added that What is going to look at the market is that the rate does not continue. “Last month it was 2%, that is, for Each monthly effective rate rise point, the burden of interest rises more or less half point on GDP, ”he explained.
Given this scenario, Polo explained that the risk facing debt sustainability is that the economy does not grow enough. He said that The risk is “that the economy does not fall basically because we have to achieve at least the GDP grows so inflation and a little more.”
“If we have real interest rates, it means that They win the dynamics of GDP, so the load on the debt goes up, ”he warned.
Source: Ambito
