The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) updated its growth forecasts for the region in 2025. The Argentina It is among the three countries that will grow the most, with an estimate of 5%, along with Guyana and Panama.
Despite the slight rebound, the agency warns that Latin America will continue trapped in a low growth cycle up to at least 2026.
A flavored improvement little
The new ECLAC estimation indicates that the regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow 2.2% in 2025, an improvement of 0.2 percentage points compared to the April forecast. While the news seems encouraging, the report warns that the region still transits a structural “low growth period”, marked by internal fragilities and an external context challenging.
In this framework, Argentina surprises when one of the three economies with the greatest projected expansion by 2025, with 5%estimated growth, along with Guyana (10.3%) and Panama (4.2%).
Argentine recovery contrasts with the contraction of 2024 and is part of a technical rebound, although the agency does not separate its forecast of the adjustment policies recently implemented.
South America takes the lead
According to the economic study of Latin America and the Caribbean 2025, South American economies would grow on average 2.7%, being the only subregion that would show an improvement compared to the previous year (2.4%). Argentina and Ecuador are the locomotives of the rebound, after a 2024 signed by recession and high inflation.
In contrast, Central America and Mexico will face a more adverse 2025, with a planned growth of 1%, well below 1.8% registered in 2024. ECLAC points out that the weakening of external demand, especially the United States, will affect the entire subregion. Mexico, by case, would grow just 0.3%.
The Caribbean presents a dual image: if Guyana is included, growth would reach 4.1%. However, excluding the oil country, the average falls to 1.8%. Tourism and natural disasters will continue to condition the economic dynamics of the Caribbean countries.
Trump and the new economic order
ECLAC also warns about a resurgence of external risks that could impact the region. The re -election of Donald Trump in the United States and his return to an aggressive commercial policy already has concrete consequences: Brazil, for example, will face a 50% tariff on its exports to the US from August 7. This decision, framed in a new stage of protectionism, could be extended to other countries and key products for Latin America.
The UN agency projects that the world GDP will go from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025, and will remain moderate in 2026 (3%). The United States, Europe and China will grow less, and emerging countries could be affected by greater financial selectivity and an eventual fall in capital flows.
The private consumption brake
One of the main factors that explain the weak regional growth is the deceleration of private consumption. ECLAC estimates that its contribution to GDP will fall from 2% in 2024 to 1.6% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026. The combination of high informality, low investment and persistent structural inequalities continues to weigh on the sustained expansion capacity.
The countries that will grow more and less
In addition to Argentina, Panama and Guyana, other countries that will show good economic dynamism in 2025 are Paraguay and San Vicente and the Grenadines, with 4% estimated. At the other extreme, Haiti (-2.3%) and Cuba (-1.5%) will suffer contractions, while Bolivia and Ecuador will grow only 1.5%.
The Argentine case is undoubtedly one of the most striking. After a strong recession in 2024, the economy would take a positive turn this year. It remains to see if that growth is sustained over time or if it responds to a statistical rebound after adjustment.
The improvement in regional projections is not enough to reverse the general diagnosis: Latin America remains trapped in a moderate growth cycle, with great internal challenges and a growing pressure from the global scenario. Argentina’s rebound is a positive sign, but not exempt from uncertainty.
Source: Ambito
