It is 0.3 more points than was indicated in the April agreement and It was an objective that had “self -provoked” the government of Javier Milei before being submitted to the first examination of the fund. But in the light of Not having fulfilled the goal of accumulation of reservations international, almost You can understand why it had talked about a higher objective to the necessary. It was known in advance that the dollars committed were not going to be gathered, and the only thing the government has available to show by itself, without agreeing with the opposition, is to continue cutting expenses.
According to the new agreement, the Government will adjust on what has already adjusted, as is the case of disability pensions and on universal child allocation, In addition to erase Exceptions to Value Added Tax (VAT). It is clear that The veto to the laws that promoted governors from the opposition For spending on retirement or other erogations, It is vital because otherwise the country would enter into a new breach.
Now, depending on how the current fiscal dynamics are being developed, that objective is more than fulfilled. In the first semester Luis Caputo already has accumulated 0.8% of GDP in primary surplus and 0.4% of the financial.
Caputo already has a large part of the goal fulfilled
“The base scenario is now a primary surplus of 1.6% of GDP In 2025 (compared to 1.3% at the time of program approval), in line with the objective of the authorities, ”says the IMF.
To do this, he says “It will be necessary to maintain a strict discipline of spending, together with tax reforms in terms of taxes, co -participation in income and pensions, to consolidate the fiscal anchor over time ”.
In that sense, the report indicates that a 2.5% projection of the GDP of the medium -term primary surplus is maintained. “For the remainder of this year, to achieve a primary surplus of 1.6 % of GDP is still the priority agreed,” says the text.
“A additional effort of 0.3 points PBI percentage, introduced in April To support the transition to the new exchange rate regime. This higher surplus will be based on more strict spending controls, as well as efficiency improvements in social programs, ”says the report
In that sense, the government has committed to the fund to grant lower social benefits. The report indicates that one of the variables to ensure that lower payment are “Improved eligibility controls for disability pensions and universal child allocation (AUH), which are facilitated by the integration of various social data sets in a single social registry ”. That appears as a goal by the end of this year.
Meanwhile, the report states that “The continuity of the discipline in spending remains essential, and will imply that the government resists new spending initiatives Without financing, especially since it is already projected that the general primary expenditure increases by 7 % in real terms this year. ” If mentioning it, it refers to the vetoes of the weekend of the Executive Power.
2026 budget project
The review report indicates that “the project Budget for 2026 will be presented to Congress at the end of September and will be approved at the end of December. ”
“The authorities point out that will continue to be aligned with the Fiscal Anchor of the Balance Sheet And it will be consistent with the expected increase in interest costs as Argentina recovers access to international capital markets and continues to make exchange restrictions more flexible, ”says the text.
There it is pointed out that “Most restrictive fiscal policies will boost external adjustment and greater accumulation of reserveswhile reducing the excessive dependence of monetary policy. ”
“The Fiscal collection reforms aim to simplify and improve the equity and efficiency of the tax systemincluding the rationalization of fiscal expenditure in VAT, the standardization of special taxes and the reduction of distortive taxes About trade ands financial transactions ”, Anticipate the report.
In the case of VAT, fiscal spending (which is not charged) a year equals 1.31% of GDP In 2025, according to estimates of the Ministry of Economy itself. 1.20% arises from standards of the tax that leaves some products or services out of their base, or applies reduced aliquot, and 0.11% comes from special regimes to promote activities such as rigi. They would be almost $ 10 billion this year.
“The initial proposals, which are also preparing with the support of the World Bank and the IDB, will be presented at the end of December 2025 so that they can go into force next year, ”says Staff Report.
Minor subsidies to energy and new pension reform
In terms of expenses, the IMF states that “The authorities will reduce energy subsidies and will bring electricity and gas rates to cost recovery, at the same time improving the quality of services and efficiency of the electricity market ”.
“In addition, the development of a Comprehensive pension reform to simplify the currently fragmented system and improve the proportionality between contributions and benefits including the promotion of labor formality, ”says the report, which specifies that this project will be raised at the end of 2026 to be treated in 2027, electoral year.
It is also clarified that the draft of the budget 2026 “It will include a comprehensive fiscal risk evaluation and a medium -term fiscal framework.
“Additional reforms will be required for Modify the income co -participation framework to better harmonize tax incentives between the federal government and the provincials, as well as to reduce the high budgetary rigidities that hinder adjustments to external clashes, ”says the report.
The IMF indicates that to strengthen the credibility of the fiscal anchor, it must be included “The zero global fiscal deficit rule in the Fiscal Responsibility Law although over time it could be considered the inclusion of anti -cyclical characteristics and additional debt anchors ”.
Source: Ambito
