The minister received a “waiver” from the fund for the lack of accumulation of reserves. In addition, he must have agreed what he will do with capital control.
Patience in business. Without making great statements, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) supported Last Friday the government’s decision of Keep exchange restrictions that mainly impact on companies and allowed a postponement in its uprising.
By low and elliptically, the international organism stressed in its staff report that this process of enabling companies access to the exchange market must gradually advance, “adjusting to the current economic conditions, to avoid risks of instability in the currency market.”
The moment is not the best for BCRA coffers and demand in the market. In June, the acquisitions of dollars No specific purposes by natural persons reached a significant volume of around US $ 2,416 million, driven by stability in the price of foreign currency and the Relaxation of savings purchases controls. This figure contrasts with the monthly average of US $170 million during 2024, when there were strict limits per individual under the restriction regime. Since April, with the elimination of barriers for retail transactions and with permission for financial entities to offer foreign exchange to customers with minimal limitations, the demand for dollars accelerated.
Purchases in April were around US $ 2,077 million, in May the US $ 2,283 million and in June the aforementioned quantity, levels comparable to the 2017 average after the elimination of controls in that period, although lower than the subsequent peaks that led to reimplant restrictions.
A more active central bank to buy dollars in the square
Thus, the IMP It seems to have made the numbers. That is The recommendation to keep the stocks to companies is part of the approval of the first review of the agreement with the country, which included an immediate disbursement of US $ 2,000 million destined to strengthen the reserves of the Central Bank. As transcended in the Palace of Finance, the support of the IMF seeks to consolidate the executive’s ability to comply with external obligations, while a cautious approach to exchange management. In this context, IMF itself adjusted down the accumulation goals of reserves for next year, providing greater flexibility to the government. This modification allows to focus on stabilization before proceeding to a broader opening in access to currencies.
The agency also highlights the importance of a prudent control over the exchange rate and interest rates And recommend programmed acquisitions of foreign currencies by the Central Bank. These actions seek to strengthen external positions predictably. Additionally, it is proposed to temporarily raise the rhythm of public debt auctions to optimize liquidity in the short term. This initiative would help mitigate pressures on rates and dollar, particularly in times of greater political uncertainty.
Debt placements and the predisposition to sell on the roof of the band
The IMF emphasized that a Forecasting Calendar of Buying Currencies by the BCRA It is crucial to reinforce market confidence and avoid excessive dependence on defensive interventions. Recently, Secretary Pablo Quirno vehemently defended this strategy and ensuring that The central is ready to intervene if the official dollar reaches the roof of $ 1,450, but emphasized that the measures to absorb weights are sufficient to neutralize the pressures before they impact. In a recent communication, Quirno said that “the weights are left over and the market confidence is key”, justifying the 65% rates and the increase in lace at 40% as tools to “anchor expectations and avoid shocks.”
However, his statements generated skepticism, with criticisms that accuse him of improvisation. These statements reflect the tension between official rhetoric and a market that, in pre -electoral periods, has demonstrated a notable skill to overcome exchange restrictions, as in 2019 and 2021, when electoral uncertainty amplified the pressure on financial dollars, even challenging the most robust defenses. As mentioned in previous columns, A key pillar of this “Quirno dome” is the rise of 40% bank lacewhich acts as a shield, immobilizing 40% of the deposits in the BCRA without remuneration and restricting the capacity of the banks to provide or invest in pesos.
Source: Ambito
