After the Strong acceleration of the dollar in July and the subsequent descent in early Augustthe main consultants of the City began to measure the inflation facing the eighth month of the year. The comparison point for analysts in this case is what happened with the movement of the IPC during April after the exchange volatility and within the framework of the debut then of the new regime.
In that month the acceleration of the dollar was expected to move to prices. However, April inflation finally slowed down and drilled 3% during the government of Javier Milei.
The Inflation of the City of Buenos Aires In July he accelerated 2.5% From the 2.1% June. The rise was motivated by the seasonal rise of restaurants and hotels (+5.3%) in the middle of the winter holidays, as well as by Housing and services (+2.3%) and transport (+3.6%). Food and drinks It was fourth with respect to its incidence after advancing 1.8%.
Inflation for August
In the eighth month of the year, analysts agree that There is not much seasonal pressure And that the tourism After the end of the winter holidays. Now, what impact will the 14% rise in the dollar?
“It is not easy to anticipate”responded to Scope categorically Camilo Tiscornia, of C&T ASSOCIATESwhile recalled that during April many were said “nonsense” on the transfer at dollar increase prices. María Castiglioni, From this same consultant, he added that in the first days of August the dollar is going down, that is, “float.”
In the last five wheels the Official dollar gave up $ 47.50 (-3.5%) for a greater supply of foreign exchange, product of the permanent decline of retentions to agriculture; as well as the apparent Central Bank intervention (BCRA) in the futures market in the longest positions, according to market sources.
In that sense, they stressed that “There is not much impact on consumer level”. “There may be in some goods, others have room, since the official exchange rate fell with the country tax that went from 7.5% to 0% and all that moved to less prices, but August is a quiet month in general so we are predicting 1.9% For the month, “Castiglioni said.
In that line, Rocío Bisang, of Ecogo, It coincides that “For now we are not seeing much transfer”. “We have been making daily lying to follow it and although the vegetables rose a little on Monday, then we saw something in yogurts and drinks, everything is little and very punctual,” said the specialist, who said that preliminarily project an IPC of 1.9% in August.
From ANALYTICS They added that “in the first days of August there are no changes in the tendency of inflation in food and drinks.” By August they expect inflation to be located in the 1.8%.
According to the measurement of balance, The first week of August threw an inflation of 1%just 0.1 pp more than July, led by the increase in regulated ( +2%, +0.3 pp vs 1st week of July).
“This rise is the largest for the first week of the month since March, which shows an – acceleration. Core inflation climbed 0.9% with higher increases in the component that is not food and drinks (1.3% weekly, +0.3 pp vs. 1 month ago),” they said from the consultant.
Gonzalo Carrera, of Balances, He stressed that “the ‘Pass Through’ is low for now and is heterogeneous and is mostly concentrated in some areas such as gasoline, cars, cleaning product and things more linked to the imported, even, in personal care, and less to food and drinks.”
The LCG food inflation It was from 2%, The highest since the first week of February. “In the last four weeks the average inflation is 0.8% monthly while the measurement between tips amounted to 1.5% monthly,” says the report showing an acceleration in the prices of prices vegetables (+5%), meats (+3.9%) and fruit (3.1%).
The gurús who participate in the Market expectation survey (REM) that publishes the BCRAon the other hand, although their forecasts accelerated slightly against the previous measurement, they project that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) It is located in 1.8% in July, A rise to June (+1.6%), while for August It is expected to be Fourteenth at 1.7%. For the months in 2025, even, inflation is expected to not exceed 2%.
Source: Ambito
