The Fund decided not to mention the profit turn of almost $ 12 billion. Follow the debate for emission, dollar and inflation.
The International Monetary Fund left a striking phrase in its last technical review of the agreement with Argentina: “There was no monetary financing by the Central Bank”. However, the report omit $ 12 billionmade in April under the figure of Utilities distribution. The omission did not go unnoticed in the market and between economists warn that, beyond its accounting nature, the monetary effect is identical to that of a direct issue.
He data arises from a section of the “Staff Report” published by the Fund in recent daysin which the performance of the program is evaluated as “positive”. There it stands out that the government fulfilled the objective of primary fiscal surplus until May, and it is underlined that there was no monetary assistance by the BCRA. However, the reading of the document left little in some offices of the local market.
From the Currency and Equity Currency Group (MDE) they warned that, according to the criteria of the program itself, the Net Financing of the BCRA to the Treasury must be zero throughout its validity. The fund even calculated that between December 31, 2024 and on June 13 that balance was -$ 1.1 billionwhich would suggest a net resource drainage. But, in parallel, does not mention any utilities turn of April 25an operation with significant monetary impact.
“That transfer for almost $ 12 billion was key so that the treasure could comply with maturities in weeks of strong financial tension”, Said the MDE report, adding that without that aid,“ the liquidity management would have been seriously complicated. ”In that context, they recalled that the account of the Treasure Pesos account in the BCRA is one of the variables that closely follows the market to evaluate the government’s ability to pay and, therefore, influence the debt renewal rates.
Issue: The solitary trap
The technical debate found echo among market analysts. “They are cheating on the lonely. For that turn money was issued. Every time they talk about the wide monetary base they pretend to dementia on that turn”the analyst said Christian Buter. “Technically it is not the same, because there is supposed to an improvement in the BCRA heritage, but it is monetarily a broadcast,” he said.
In parallel, the noise on the weights grew along with the jump of the dollar in the last week. The economist Ricardo Inti Alpertof technolopolitics, he warned that “the broadcast started again.” According to their data, from the assumption of the current government until today, the Total deposits went from $ 35 billion to $ 121 billionand the Monetary aggregate M3 He climbed from $ 41 billion to $ 143 billion.
The stock, the companies and the key of the reserves
Another aspect that generated concern in the market was the IMF confirmation that the Liberation of the exchange rate -In particular for dividend payments and accumulated commercial debts- it will continue to be conditional to the sustained accumulation of reservations and to the fulfillment of the program goals.
This was read by multinationals as a confirmation that The restrictions come to stayat least in the short and medium term. The background staff justified this position ensuring that “the prudential regulation will continue to be agile to mitigate the risks of short -term flows and exchange mismatches.”
But the data that surprised the most was another. The IMF stated that the accumulation of reserves will not depend so much on commercial surplus or fiscal adjustment, but that the main driver will be the sale of public assets, concessions and privatizationsadded to the support of other official creditors. That is, the idea that the objective of strengthening reserves will support extraordinary income is consolidated than in the structural functioning of the economy.
Source: Ambito
