The activity seems to have cooled in Julyaccording to the first sector data that analyzed the consultants. The volatility of interest rates in pesos and The strong rise of Dollar during that month were the factors that had the most incidence in that loss of dynamism, according to analysts. In this sense, they projected for the rest of the year a disparate growth between the sectors of the economy.
With official data of economic activity only until May, among experts there is no consensus about what happened in June. The Orlando Ferreres consultant estimated an unstacilities of 0.7%, while Eco Go calculated one 0.2% dropsimilar to the economic cycle research center (CICEC), which estimated a monthly contraction of 0.3%.
In the last indicator of faithful of faithful, its director, Juan Luis Bourexplained that 2025 “began with a quarterly recovery of 0.8%, which would have continued with A disestationalized increase of just half In the second quarter of the year, indicating a deceleration that, at some point, can be confused with a brake“
And he added that “apart from some deceleration in the quarterly variation for investment and private consumptionthe negative variation of net imports (imports of goods and services are far from exports) begins to collect tolls. “
Economic activity: What happened in July?
When knowing what happened in the seventh month of the year, the situation is a bit more difficult. Consulted by Scopethe economist of LCG, Melisa Salacommented that “in the survey of several progress indicators, They look more green than red in June“, while in July” he will surely feel The impact of instability associated with the dollar “.
The chief economist of Facimex values, Adrian Yarde Bullerraised a similar scenario: “At the moment we have few indicators linked to the activity in July as to draw a forceful conclusion, but The first signs that we saw suggest that the economy would not have grown with respect to June“
In addition, he explained “if this is confirmed in the official data when the EMAE is known within a few months, It would not be striking considering the exchange and financial volatility that we had last month“
For his part, the director of Orlando Ferreres, Fausto Spotornohe considered that during July “there may be a certain slowdown of the activity for the issue of rates.” However, he clarified to this medium that “It will be momentary and partial”.
Forward, Sala raised “a path with high and low, very disparate between sectorswhich hardly implies sustained and thriving growth in the coming months. ” 4.7 points are explained by the statistical drag that the recovery left until May“
In a more optimistic tone, Spotorno stated: “I think entering next year We are going to see a growth rate improving. “
The economy lost power in July
In July, the Construct index (IC)which measures the evolution of the volumes sold to the private sector of the construction products manufactured by the companies that make it up, registered A decrease of 0.47% desestationalized against the previous month.
Meanwhile, cement offices to the domestic market with seasonal adjustment fell 2.4% monthly, according to outlier estimates. That same consultant calculated that Terminal sales to dealerships With seasonal adjustment they fell for the second consecutive month, with 5.3%, and They accumulate a 10% setback in the last two months.
In turn, the economist and partner of the consultant, Gabriel Caamañopublished in networks that “Automotive production with seasonal adjustment fell 12.7% monthlyafter having fallen in similar magnitude during the month of June “and with a 24% setback in the last two months.
However, from Facimex They relativized that data, since in their estimates Cement offices rose 3% monthly and automotive production fell 6%. From its traffic light of economic activity it also followed that Patentings grew 1% monthly and the collection of credit and debit taxes fell 7%.
On this last point, LCG found that Consumer loans grew only 1% in real terms against June, well below the semiannual average that was around 4%. The slight monthly advance was explained by personal loans, which rose 1.7% real. While, Credit card financing barely increased a real 0.4%.
Source: Ambito
