While retail inflation of the first months of the year was 17%, the monetary base increased 35%.
According to the last report of the consultant Quantum finance, The monetary base increased by 35% (10,385 billion pesos), double the inflationwhich rose 17% in the first months of the year. The document specifies that the increase is mainly explained by the BCRA Profit Transfer To Treasury and the Disarmament of Lefisalthough it was partially sterilized by treasure deposits and title sales.
In that sense, he explains: “The real increase in the base is verified in the context of Decreasing monthly inflation ratesto increase the demand for money Starting from monetization levels in historically very low pesos, 5% of GDP today”
The two stages of the year: how changes in monetary policy impacted
The report marks two moments in the evolution of the monetary base from December to July. The first, between January and April of this year, when the government began the so -called “phase 3” of the economic program. From that point, the stocks were partially lifted and a flotation system between bands was inaugurated. The second key point was located as of May, with these variations already in force in monetary policy.
In the first stage, the monetary base increased by 2.97 billion pesos while in the second the increase was 7,414 billion.
“The net currency purchase was practically nil by adding the net purchases of the public sector and net sales of the private sector. That is, the monetary impact for operations of the external sector was very limited. Instead, the“ transfer of profits from the BCRA of 2024 to the Treasury, by 11,976 billion, generated an expansion that was partially sterilized with the increase in the tessel deposits in the Bcra In part to buy currencies- and for sales of public titles in the BCRA portfolio, ”said the consultant at work.
In turn, they pointed out that the expansion of the second stage was mainly due to the disarmament of Lefis For 12,155 billion pesos in July, partially sterilized with treasure debt emissions whose produced was deposited in the account it has in the BCRA.
On the demand side, the circulating in the power of the public grew by 3,887 billion (almost 22%) and the minimum cash integration of the banks increased by 6,573 billion (67.5%).
Finally, the report concludes that of the $ 14,397 billion that the Treasury accumulated in “box” in pesos between January and July, about $ 2,295 billion were due to the financial surplus and $ 11,976 billion to the “transfer of Bcra utilities”. In that period, he says, “the net debt broadcast was practically nil.”
Source: Ambito
