According to a report from the Consultant 1816the IMF flexible the reservation target at US $ 6.5 billion compared to the written in April, when the extended facilities agreement (EFF) was signed. According to its recent Staff Report, the institution led by Kristalina Georgieva already warns that there will be no positive net reserves until the middle of next year.
This position change acquires a more realistic tone given the reluctance that the ruling had to intervene in the exchange market from the start of the flotation band scheme. Both the president Javier Milei As different officials, they repeatedly declared that the Central Bank (BCRA) will only buy currencies when the price of the dollar touchs the band of the band.
For his part, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputohe assures that it is the Treasury that has to swell his coffers in hard currency and not the monetary authority, since it is the first to comply with debt obligations.
Within the framework of the questioning of breach of the goal with the IMF, the head of the economic team began to give more relevance in his speech to the purchases of the Treasury and, in an exhibition made at the beginning of July, he pointed out the four sources of financing that he intends to use his portfolio: Privatizations of public companies, sale of assets, concessions (such as hydroelectric plants) and purchasing blocks (consisting of bilateral operations with “large players” such as banks).
The government must accumulate more than US $ 6,000 million in four months
In the last report, The IMF states that negative net reserves arrive at the end of the year at the -U $ S3.2 billion. This would imply an accumulation of US $ 3,600 million, according to calculations made by 1816 at January 2025.
However, the consultant projects a Net negative balance of US $ 2,600 among the dollars that are missing from the different international organizations (+US $ 1,800 million) and the sum of debt maturities, both with organizations and private bonds (-u $ S4.4 billion). That is why the Government must add that amount to US $ 300 million mentioned above, which gives a result of US $ 6,200 million.
Reservations: What sources of financing exist to meet the goal with the IMF?
Federico Machadoeconomist of the Policies Observatory for the National Economy, Avizora that the main financing mechanisms to fulfill the goal will be “the purchases of the Block Treasury, new placations of Bonte and privatizations/concessions”. “Among the three I think they will meet the goal in a relatively comfortable way; I don’t think BCRA purchases are contemplated,” he predicted.
In his report, 1816 stressed that the IMF “opened the door for the central to buy dollars systematically within the band.” If the government wishes to get half of the US $ 6.2 billion by this road, would reach purchases of the order of the US $ 30 million daily In the nearly 100 business days that remain in 2025, “he explained.
In parallel, the entity added, the government could go to privatizations or take new debt with private. The economist Matías Rajnerman pointed to Scope that the latter “still seems as difficult as” with which The purchase in the Mulc would be the “core” of the strategy again. “An important thing here is that, if the Central Bank eventually sold dollars on the roof of the band, those currencies are discounted from the goal: that is, it relaxes and does not become more demanding,” said the specialist.
Regarding the separation between the purchases of the BCRA and the purchases of the Treasury that Caputo does, Rajnerman put some repairs. “What matters is the consolidated national public sector, which makes a lot of sense that BCRA and Treasury join. The monetary effect is not necessarily the same, but the impact on reserves yes, “he deepened.
It is worth highlighting the Chile case That, from an IMF recommendation “to face external shocks”, a daily purchasing program of up to US $25 million will begin. With the aim of increasing the proportion of own reserves and gradually replacing part of the credit lines in force in foreign currency, the measure will be maintained for three years, with a total goal of US $ 18.5 billion.
At the moment, there are no indications that Argentina will follow a similar path. “Since you can buy the treasure, There are no great reasons to think that the BCRA is going to buy inside the bandwhich would also imply issuance of pesos, contrary to the government’s restrictive monetary policy, “Machado said.
Source: Ambito
