In a high voltage context in the money market and in the dollar, And in a framework of lack of liquidity in the banks, the minister Luis Caputo and the Secretary of Finance, Pablo Quirno, They prepared one Bold strategy to reduce short -term interest rates.
The fact to consider is that, for tomorrow, The Government decided to limit subscriptions to the capitalizable Treasury letters (LECAP) shorter In debt tender.
This measure, recently announced, seeks force investors – mainly banks– to extend the deadlines of its placements or maintain greater liquidity in pesoswhich could reduce the cost of treasure financing. However, a round of consultations in the financial market warns that This “trick” entails risks significant, like a possible capital flow to the dollar, that could generate a rebound in its value, exacerbating inflation and affecting exchange stability.
How the financial trick is prepared to contain rates
The tenderscheduled for Wednesday, aims renew maturities for almost $ 15 billionwithin a total of $ 23 billion for the whole month. In a surprising turn, the treasure established Maximum stops for shorter lecaps: $ 3 billion for which he expires on September 12, 2025 (S12S5) and $ 4 billion for September 30 (S30s5).
This implies that no more than 50% of the funds placed can be allocated to instruments with maturities below one month, which forces the rest to migrate to longer options, such as maturation LECAPS in October, November or January 2026, Boncap until February 2026, Linked Dollar Bonuses (TzVD5, with expiration December 2025) and Bonce adjusted by inflation (Tzxo5, to October 2025). In addition, bonds adjusted by the Tamar rate (wholesale deposits) were added, with maturities in November 2025, January and February 2026.
According to the economic team, the main objective of this limitation is flatten the yield curve and lower short -term rateswhich currently press the cost of indebtedness of the State. By restricting the demand for short Lecaps – the banks of banks in previous tenders due to their liquidity and lower risk – the government encourages investors to opt for more widespread deadlines or retain liquidity in pesos, which would reduce the upward pressure on short rates.
In the market, it is observed that short LECAPS already operate with monthly rates close to 2.7%, which Raises the Treasury Financing Cost in a scenario of persistent inflation and exchange pressures. It is understood then that this move is part of a broader effort to stabilize the monetary scheme, precisely at a time of greater volatility.
The dangers of the play: an approach to the dollar
However, this mechanism is not exempt from dangers. Market sources highlight that, If banks do not respond extending deadlines and choose to accumulate liquidity, that excess pesos could be channeled towards the purchase of dollarsgenerating a rebound in the exchange rate.
The moment is not less: the inclusion of dollar bonds linked in the tender, with futures prices Above the current exchange band ceilingat the same time suggests expectations of a possible change in the exchange regime, which could amplify the demand for dollar assets and press its value.
Analysts consulted by Scope They warn that This “pressed” of the government for containing the dollar is already taking its toll: A rebound of inflation in August is expected, with a negative impact on economic activity, due to the lower incentive to maintain pesos positions. In addition, market volatility could be increased if the tender does not validate high real rates (greater than 20%) for instruments such as bonce, generating doubts about the sustainability of the debt in pesos.
Historically, similar strategies to handle debt have had Mixed results. In previous tenders, the concentration in short LECAPS exacerbated rates volatility, and changes in the instrument menu – such as the exclusion of maturities in August or October – have generated unpredictable reactions in investors.
Experts point out that, with the dollar around $ 1,330, LECAPS are still attractive for their positive dollar rates (around 3.7% monthly), but a failure in the strategy could erode that confidence and accelerate the inverse “carry trade”.
Source: Ambito
