He National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) will announce the July inflation data, in a month marked by the dollar accelerationalthough analysts did not observe that the increase in the official currency is transferred directly at prices. He also played a Key role in the pesos shortage the Supercase of interest.
As an advance, an acceleration was observed in the CABA Consumer Price Index (CPI)went up to 2.5% In July, being its highest level since March, with marked increases in Restaurants and hotels and transportation. So far this year, the variation accumulates 18.1%while in the interannual it was located in the 40.9%.
July inflation: analysts foresee that it will be under 2%
Although for a seasonal reason, especially tourism and winter vacations, the inflation Be above the June index, the Gurúes of the City Buenos Aires expect the CPI to be below 2% And stay below that level throughout the year, despite mid -term elections.
For its part, from Ecogo they foresee that the price increase is located around 1.8% In July, just over June (1.6%). In the accumulated of the year, it would be positioned around 17.6% already interannual, drilling 40% and would be of 38.3%.
On this month’s index, it is noted that Seasonal prices rose 3.3%promoting the indicator. This is basically explained by the seasonality of the winter holidays, which traced substantial advances in the categories linked to the tourism and recreation.
“The first August price records (four business days of July and August 1) Marina Dal Poggetto.
Meanwhile, the C&T Retail Price Survey For him Greater Buenos Aires (GBA) presented an increase in 1.9% Monthly, something below 2% that both INDEC and the consultant had relieved in June for this region. With this data, the twelve variation would come down from 38.8% to 35.5%.
Beyond the seasonal factor, from C&T They stressed that during July the vegetables They also had a very strong increasethe largest since last March.
For the month of July, since Balances They estimated that the variation was 1.9%, with a substantial increase in regulated (+2.4%), while seasonal ones, according to the consultant of Martín Rapettiit was below 2% and even below the average around 1.6%. Although compared to June, the increase was important since it had marked a deflation of 0.2%.
For its part, PXQ measured that the variation would be close to the 1.8%, with an accumulated index of 17.1%while INTERNUAL TERMS The increase is 36.4%.
Among the divisions, Recreation and culture led the rises of the month with a rise in 2.7% promoted by seasonal factors linked to the winter recess, especially in the items Tourist packages (+6%) and recreational and cultural services (+2%).
He followed him Housing, water, electricity and other fuels (+2.5%), traction by Increases in Rentals and Expenses (+4%) and in Rates of electricity (+2.8%), gas (+2.2%) and water (+0.7%). In the case of electricity rates, rises were highlighted in Chubut, Formosa, Entre Ríos, La Pampa, the interior of Buenos Aires and Greater Buenos Aires.
At the level of items, according to the measurement of Pxq, The main contributions to the index came from increases in fuels, chicken and lunches consumed outside the home. In contrast, the Division of clothing and footwear showed a slight decline 0.1%. “There were no significant impacts on prices due to the vote in the exchange rate,” they said from the consultant of Emmanuel Álvarez Agis.
ANALYTICSMeanwhile, it expects inflation to be located around 1.9%, With a strong increase in fruits and vegetables.
Source: Ambito
