On the one hand, for months that libertarian management is using the salary anchor as a mechanism for disciplining price dynamics. According to a survey of the CP consultant, in four of the first six months of 2025 the agreement wages rose below inflation.
The last data, corresponding to July, indicates that The salaries agreed in the most representative peers of the labor world are converging at 1% monthlywhile the consumer price index (CPI) is pressed up to the reheating of the dollar. An example of this was the negotiation between the trade union and the entrepreneurs of the sector, with increases of 1% monthly here to December, not cumulative (so in effective terms the increases will be less than 1%).
“The government is explicitly embarked on forcing the salary anchor To arrive with low inflation to the elections, at the expense of an explicit (and intense) fall of the real salary“Federico Pastrana, director of CP, said.
The high rates put economic activity in check
In parallel, the New monetary scheme implemented by the economic team since the beginning of July, that seeks to control the amount of money and free the rates to market movements, was translated into strong volatility in the performance of financial instruments in pesos.
With the disarmament of fiscal liquidity letters (Lefis), banks lost an instrument that, while guaranteed the availability of weights, generated a certain return. Since then, the behavior of the entities slid a Preferably to keep liquid money before investing in titles a greater term.
To rise up the returns, and thus also soothe the tensions on the exchange market, The treasure began to validate much higher yields in its debt tenders in local currency. Even so, the renewal of maturities was not total and the government also resorted to an upward adjustment in the lace.
Pablo MoldovanCP co-titular, stressed that in the last tender, although the annual return of short LECAPS was 65%, there was a monetary expansion of $ 2.7 billion. In addition, he added, the annual effective rate (ASD) of the short -term 84%.
In this context, the economist stressed that high rates are already hitting credit and that “Economic policy assumes an unusual recessive bias in transit to elections.”
This occurs while the economy exhibits a stagnation since February, according to the official figures of INDEC. In particular, The manufacturing industry was almost 2% below its last maximum, reached in November last year.
“What worries me, is not only the volatility we are seeing in rates, but also the level, which Kill any recovery in the economy“The financial analyst, Christian Buteler, told this media.
Quiet dollar or economic reactivation?: The crossroads that surrounds the government
For his part, the renowned Orthodox economist, Miguel Ángel Broda, predicted that “most likely the dollar will be stabilized, but the real economy feels the increase in rates and their greatest volatility.” “It should not be forgotten that Volatility is synonymous with risk, so it is expected that in this framework consumption and investment decisions are resigned. The activity, which already left behind its initial rebound, tends to be loved, without being discarded a few months with falls, “he deepened.
Given the above, the government is in the dilemma of continuing to validate this level of rates and thus avoid exchange reheating, which leads to more inflation, or boost a cut in the cost of indebtedness to mobilize economic activity.
This Wednesday’s tender will be a thermometer of the road that can take economic policy. While the treasure can be forced to validate high rates to renew the highest possible proportion of the $ 15 billion that expires in the week, although it also established maximum ceilings for less duration LECAPS, with the aim of extending the deadlines of their placements or maintaining greater liquidity in pesos and thus pressing the downward rates.
Source: Ambito
