The United States advances with its protectionist policy and generates a stir in international trade. One of the most recognized consultants in the Brazilian market proposes a road map for the regional bloc.
The United States advances with its protectionist policy and particularly punishes Brazilthe largest economy in Mercosur. The consequences on the neighboring country will feel throughout the block and warn of the pressure they will exert over local currencies. In dialogue with Scope, One of the most followed consultants for the Brazilian market suggested measures to face the new scenario: negotiate specific exceptions, coordinate regional responses to avoid unfair competition, strengthen alternative markets and activate the mechanisms of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Although the United States exports more to Brazil than matters, Donald Trump tries to corner Lula da Silva and tariffs of 50% were in force to relevant products in the basket of the neighboring country as Meat and coffee. In this case, the White House is shielded in political matters, such as the causes weighing on former president Jair Bolsonaro and not in commercial affairs.
In social networks, users most linked to the defense of Javier Milei’s government policies highlighted the difference in Trump’s treatment and celebrated that Argentina received generalized tariffs of 10%. “In politics it is worth everything, but when it is cold numbers It should be noted that any setback suffered by Brazil will have an impact on the local economy“An economist explained with great experience in the industrial sector.
Brazil It is the main commercial partner of Argentina and there are historical episodes that account for the possibility of a contagion effect. The most recent, the devaluation of the 2024 real that deepened the loss of competitiveness of the external sector and hit the balance of payments: more than 2 million Argentines vacationed in the neighboring country in the first two months of 2025 for finding better prices there. Dollars that left reserves and put more pressure on the exchange rate.
EFFECTS ON COMMERCE
For former Secretary of Commerce of Brazil, Welber Barral, “The problem is not limited to the loss of competitiveness for the highest final price. Many signatures have already sent charges that now face forced cancellations or renegotiations”According to the consultant, this affects cash flow and forces immediate measures, such as postponement of tax payments or the search for credit lines bridge.
In Brazil, The federal government even evaluates the public purchase of perishable goods to absorb part of the displaced production. “Not all items suffer the same. Brazilian Arabic coffee, due to its quality and volume, is hardly substitutable in the short term. Cellulose, in which Brazil is a global leader and that Argentina also produces in significant volumes, maintains technical advantages that weigh a lot,” Barral explained.
On this point he explained that “an exchange rate that mitigates the relative appreciation against the dollar can partially shock the coup “. The specialist in the field also said that the situation can generate opportunities for the “trade diversion” effect: if a country loses preferential access, another can occupy that space.
Palliative measures
For Welber Barral, The temptation to apply symmetrical reprisals must be contained because it could damage local productive chains that depend on those inputs. With very different political orientations Javier Milei and Lula seem to take that advice. Argentina negotiates a preferences agreement and Brazil resorts to the WTO.
Although for Mercosur, the exhibition is asymmetric because Brazil allocates about 11% of its total exports to the United States and Argentina less than 7%, the consultant who will be in the country next week, he proposed four axes for a joint position: Negotiate specific exceptions for goods without immediate substitutes in the United States, coordinate regional responses to avoid unfair competition, strengthen alternative markets that reduce American dependence and activate the WTO mechanisms.
“Trump’s tariff policy does not seem like a passenger episode, but part of a structural change in international tradeThis implies that Mercosur companies must incorporate regulatory volatility and the possibility of new rounds of increases or restriction into their planning, ”he concluded consulted by this means.
Source: Ambito
