July inflation was 1.9% last month, above the previous measurement, slightly above market projections.
The inflation of July He accelerated with respect to the previous month and was slightly above market projections by marking 1.9%. While the rise was strongly driven by winter holidays, core inflation was below 2%. In this way, The IPC It accumulates so far of the year 17.3%, while the interannual was at 36.6%as reported by the INDEC.
So, National inflation was below the CABA measurement that was 2.5% Last month but, in parallel, they shared the downward trend of the “Core”. It should also be noted that, according to the REM published by the Central Bank, the general price increase was going to be in the order of 1.8%. In this way, inflation accelerated for the second consecutive month but remains below 2%.
The division with the greatest increase in the month was Recreation and culture (+4.8%), due to Winter holidaysfollowed by transport (+2.8%), for auction in the public transport ticket. The division with the highest incidence was food and drinks that advanced 1.9% due to increases in vegetables, tubers and legumes, meats and derivatives and bread and cereals In the GBA, Pampas, Northeast, Northwest and Cuyo regions. On the other hand, in Patagonia the greatest incidence was recorded in transport.
The two divisions with the minor variations in July were Alcoholic and tobacco drinks (+0.6%) e dress (-0.9%). At the categories level, prices seasonal (+4.1%) led the increase, followed by regulated (+2.3%) e IPC Core (+1.5%), the lowest measurement of January 2018. In addition, The 3 -month mobile average of the general inflation was below 1.7% and was the lowest since November 2017.
Inflation: the “Pass Through” was limited
“Despite the fluctuations we saw with the disarmament of the Lefis, and the volatility in the exchange rate and the rates, inflation remained relatively stable in July”he said to Scopethe economist Rocio Bisang of Eco Go Who also added that much of the CPI is explained by The season that, after several months playing in favor, turned around.
“Winter holidays and bonus collection tend to rise categories such as recreation and culture (+4.8%) and restaurants and hotels (+2.8%), which joined the increases in fruits and vegetables. The regulated played in the same direction, with increases in transport, schools, prepaid, light rates, gas and water, communications, among others, “he added about the upward impulse of the CPI.
But in contrast, he stressed that there was the nucleus presented a deceleration compared to last month (+1.7%) and stood at 1.5%, “In a context where real wages remain practically stagnant since the beginning of the year, which, together with the opening of imports, imposes a roof on the increases.”. Facing August, from Eco GO they point to inflation of 2%, with “a limited pass-through.”
Clara Alesinaeconomist of the Freedom and Progress FoundationFor August, he projected: “Our survey for the first week of August showed that inflation remained stable. And for the whole month we project an IPC close to 2%, perhaps just over. The key will be how the BCRA manages the liquidity and what can absorb the treasure in debt tenders”
Source: Ambito
