The government of Javier Milei I could receive a hard blow during the next few years in terms of dollars. The most striking thing is that would be caused by its main allythe government of Donald Trump in USA.
The American president began increasing subsidies to soy producers to supply domestic oil demand, One of the destinations of Argentine grinding. In addition, the Trump administration has plans to export soybean flour to Asia, the main market for the local oilseed.
It is not a minor fact. Argentina It is the maximum exporter of soy flour worldwidewith 27.7 million tons dispatched. Last year, the oleaginous complex exported flour and pellets by U $ 2,562 millionhe 14.2% of exports Totals of the country.
The increase in biofuel production
The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed in June to raise the cut of biofuels that are mixed with the traditional for the next two years, which would boost the demand for soybean oil.
In this sense, stated stimulating local soy production to supply that demand. It would do so through 50% of the benefits received by producers that import these raw materials, known as RIN, acronym in English of renewable identification number.
The decision turned on the alarms in the Argentine agro. In 2024, Argentina supplied 50% of the US sustainable soybean oil marketwith a volume of 110,000 metric tons and a trade of US $ 107 million.
In a document signed by Chamber of the Oil Industry of the Argentine Republic (Ciara) and the Cereal Exporters Center (CEC) who could access Scopethe agricultural cameras asked the EPA to reconsider its position. “This provision is not based on environmental performance and, on the other hand, creates a non -tariff barrier that disturbs loyal competition and contravenes the commercial disciplines of the WTO“They argued.
And they added: “We urge the EPA to review its criteria to ensure that the 100% RIN value It is granted exclusively to raw materials and final biofuels that meet the strict standards of sustainability and traceability of the EPA, regardless of its national origin. This approach guarantees a system based on meritavoid discriminatory practices and support genuine environmental objectives. “
Is the US soybean flour boom?
In dialogue with Scopethe agricultural analyst Roman Dante He explained that “the increase in biodiesel subsidies is leading to the United States to grow in installed capacity of grinding plants,” which also brings the increase in soy flour production.
“The oil is used for biodiesel, but soy flour is not consumed entirely in the North American market and is exported,” Romano said, and warned the problem that means for Argentina: “As we are the main soy flour exporters, we have a problem therebecause what is happening is that this additional offer of the United States presses down the prices of the flour. “
Similarly, the consultant and former Subsecretary of Agricultural Markets Javier Preciadoexplained: “When soybeans, 200 kilos of oil and 700 soy flour are removed from each ton. If they begin to grind more soy to send the oil to the domestic market, What do they do with flour? They have to export. That will create a very strong competition to Argentina. “
For its part, the head of Ciara, Gustavo idígorashe affirmed to this medium that this danger “It’s already a reality” And he explained that “the American industry is highly subsidized by the tax benefits of the use of soy biofuels and that is why it has major flour surpluses that sell in Asia“
Roman He considered that this situation forces the Argentine agriculture “to take lower prices to continue exporting soy flour.” And deepened: “The United States achieved commercial agreements with the main buyers of soy flour in the world: The European Union, Indonesia and Japan. With which this problem for the United States is clear. “
Anyway, Preciado stated that “there is still no concrete direction, the global flour and oil market is stable.” And deepened: “It is not that neither is flying or completely depressedIt is still specular. “
Doubts with China
While that happens, the United States continues to negotiate with China a new commercial agreement and one of the points is The purchase of the Asian country of raw materials to the US, including soybeans. Trump himself referred to the issue in one of his publications in Truth Social.
“China is concerned about soybean shortage. Our great farmers produce the most robust soy. I hope China quickly quaduple your soy requests. This is also a way to substantially reduce its commercial deficit with the US. A rapid service will be provided. Thanks, President XI (Jinping), “wrote the president.
Although Asian power is the main destination of Argentine soybeans, Trump’s statements did not generate concern in the sector. “You have to see what it refers to, because quadruplica regarding what imported the previous year is crazy and this year I still didn’t have purchasesthen quadruply with respect to what it has now zero, “Romano said.
For his part, Idigoras reached a similar conclusion and said that “if the United States exports that volume of soybeans to China, He would leave his industry without raw material and Argentina could expand their sales of flour and oil to the rest of the world“
Source: Ambito
