While Minister Luis Caputo tries to keep the dollar without changes, the fixed term rate rises without stopping. Concern in government.
On a day marked by palpable financial tension, the Wholesale Rate of Argentina (Tamar) climbed to 74% (published by the Central Bank with a delay of 48 hours), establishing a Historical maximum. In fact, he evidences the strong pressures on liquidity in the banking system that the minister Luis Caputo Monitor with zeal. This milestone is produced after this week’s national treasure tender, which placed $ 3.78 billion at a tamar + 1%rate, something that will inevitably recharge the interest payments of the Treasury.
This broadcast, which captured a significant portion of the $ 5.8 billion released After a partial debt renewal the previous week, it reflects the high demand for instruments that allow to meet the lace requirements, although at a high cost that reinforces the rate rise.
The tamar, reference for deposits to fixed term of $ 1 billion or more with maturities of 30 to 35 dayshas shown an accelerated ascent. From 56% in mid -August, The 74% jump It responds to the strategy of the Central Bank to restrict liquidity to avoid overflows in the exchange market. The increase in bank lace, which forces entities to immobilize a greater proportion of their deposits, has reduced the available funds, promoting rates in the wholesale segment.
Caputo’s explanations and Arriazu’s challenge
The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, justified this strategy, emphasizing that the absorption of weights is essential to maintain exchange stability. “We are withdrawing excess liquidity to consolidate the fiscal and exchange balance”, Said Caputo, highlighting that the tender helped neutralize surplus funds.
The economist Ricardo Arriazu He projected an optimistic long -term panorama, suggesting that, with fiscal discipline and an effective intervention in the exchange market, inflation could fall below 1% monthly by the end of 2025, with an interannual variation less than 20%. However, he warned that rates such as Tamar at 74% (published 48 hours late by the BCRA) could generate immediate tensions, by making credit and decelerate economic activity.
The rate worries about several reasons. In the Palace of Finance, evolution is monitored. It must be remembered that this week the government announced that the primary fiscal surplus grew 41% year -on -year in July, in real terms, so in the first seven months of 2025 it represented about 1.1% of the internal gross product (GDP). However, The Treasury had its first financial deficit of the yeardue to the seasonality of the interest payments of the debt, while the growth of interests for LECAPS concerns.
The Ministry of Economy reported Monday that the tax balance gave a positive primary result of $ 1,749,386 million, But a financial “red” $ 168,515 million. The latter was due to the maturities of the bonars and global (public titles issued during the management of Martín Guzmán in the Treasury Palace) that, net of intra public sectors, meant about $ 1,917,901 million.
THE ZIGZAG OF THE CAUTION
The bond rates, which reflect short -term interbank loans, exhibited extreme volatility, with intradiary peaks close to 80% in recent days. Yesterday, the 1 -day bond rate collapsed to 2.1% on the closure of the wheel, after touching peaks of up to 65%. The abrupt movement was tied to the extraordinary tender of the Treasury and the new scheme of daily lace arranged by the BCRA. However, This moderation is not representativesince banks significantly reduce the demand for ciones in the last hour of the day, explaining the strong drop in the schedule in that time section. This dynamic hides the liquidity pressure that dominates the market during most of the day.
In the retail segment, the Fixed deadlines for small savers They have climbed up to 50% annual nominal, reflecting fierce competition for deposits. Banks, forced by stricter lace, raise the offered yields, which could restrict credit for consumers and SMEs, affecting consumption and investment in a context of fragile economic recovery.
The dollar maintained relative stability, with minimal variations in its quotes, a priority objective of the Central Bank that justifies the cost of record rates.
Source: Ambito
