The Chamber of Deputies It is preparing to analyze on Wednesday the Vetos of President Javier Milei to laws that establish an increase in retirement, extend the pension moratorium and establish a regime Help for disabled. This package is complemented by the treatment in the two initiative enclosure to distribute the contributions of the national treasure and the produced of the taxes that tax the fuels among the governors.
Basically, the ruling La Libertad advances and allies will seek to join a minimum number of legislators that prevents the opposition from insisting With the laws which would lead to an increase in spending that would put government difficulties to sustain the surplus in 2026 and reduce the one provided for 2025, something that worries the market for these hours.
In fact, the projects that were promoted by the governors of the provinces with the majority support of the opposition and even dialoguistic legislators could Complicate fiscal surplus goals of the agreement with the IMF. By 2025 it is from 1.6% of GDP and 0.3% financial. Next year is 2.2% the primary and 0% the financial.
According to estimates based on data from the Congress Budget Office (OPC), the annual cost of the package already approved by the Congress that Milei It intends to lower is of the order of 1.46% of GDP for 2026 and 0.4% of GDP for this year, depending on what it would subtract until December, Depending on the moment in which the norms enter into force, provided that the insistence is not able to avoid insistence. If at that are added the ATN and fuel projects, the cost could be up to 1.7% and 0.7%
Law for retirees
In the case of retirementthe law provides for a 7.2% increase for all assets, incorporating a bonus of $ 110,000 mobile, non -remunerative or bonus. “The fiscal cost of the 7.2% increase is $ 1.67 billion (0.20% of GDP) for the remainder of the year and amounts to $ 3.4 billion (0.41% of GDP) annualized. With regard to the increase in the bonus at $ 110,000 mobile, the cost would be $ 1,015 billion (0.12% of GDP), with an annualized cost estimated at $ 3.13 billion (0.38% of GDP), ”says the OPC.
The law provides for a scheme of monthly advances in compensation by the national State to address the deficit of the non -transferred provincial funds, which although it has no economic effect, has a financial effect. The cost of this measure is 1.4 billion (0.17% of GDP) between August and December 2025, with an annualized cost of $ 3.1 billion (0.38% of GDP). Regarding the financing provided for in the sanctioned law, this reaches $ 3.2 billion (0.39% of GDP) by 2025.
The return of the moratorium
The initiative proposes the Reinstanding of the pension debt payment plan and the expansion of the universal pension for the elderly. The total tax impact derived exclusively from the new pension high amounts to $ 3.5 billion which represents 0.39% of GDP.
Help disabled
The total tax impact of the measures Quantifiable is estimated in a range of $ 2.4 billion (0.28% of GDP) to $ 4.3 billion (0.51% of GDP). Costs include new highs between 493,000 and 946,000 beneficiaries, fiscal expense to favor companies that hire disabled, subsidies for protected workshops and emergency compensation to providers.
According to government sources in the field, the State would have to have about 500,000 beneficiaries and there are 1,800,000 pensions for disability. “First it is vetoed and there we could see the possibility of doing something. In fact, we have the amount stepped on a long time ago,” said an official of the Casa Rosada.
Emergency aid to Bahía Blanca
The package included a law that establishes aid to the city of Bahía Blanca for the tragedy of the flood of about $ 200,000 million. The national government vetoed it because it considers that this aid has already been established through a decree.
A window to negotiate
He Office in the Chamber of Deputies opened a window that could lead to a negotiation with the governors. And it is that to the opinion of the majority of the projects to change the distribution of the contributions of the national treasure and the fuel tax (which are actually two) that were approved by the opposition, the legislators of the minority added a minority. This consists of distributing based on the co -participible criteria, the funds that have been left without distributing at the end of each year. Taking into account the average 2017-2024 (without 2020 and 2021 per pandemia), the ATNs effectively distributed equivalent to 25% of the total possible.
“Indeed, a 75% would be the possible percentage of being distributed as co -participation. Taking into account the complete 2025, the majority proposal implies an increase in funds to the provinces and CABA of 0.04% of GDP and the 0.03% minority proposal of GDP, ”says the Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (Iaraf).
In the case of fuels The proposal with a majority implies increasing the direct participation of the provinces and CABA from the current 25% to 58%, keeping the direct participation of the ANSES unchanged and going down the national treasure. On the other hand, the proposal of minority implies increasing the participation of provinces and CABA to 42%.
The Iaraf states that “the proposal of majority opinion implies extra resources to the provinces for $1,580,000 million and the minority proposal for $ 814,000 million ”.
“In terms of GDP, The fiscal impact of the majority would be 0.18% of GDP and the minority of 0.1% of GDP. Fiscal impact is understood as the surplus that would go to provinces and that would stop going to the National Treasury, ”says the report.
Source: Ambito
