The President Javier Milei Face a scenario of maximum political and economic tension, where System cracks deepen by leaps and bounds.
The camera of Deputies attached a double setback to the government By rejecting the presidential veto to the Emergency Law in Disability with 172 votes in favor, 73 against and 2 abstentions, and approve the automatic distribution of the contributions of the National Treasury (ATN) to the provinces, limiting the discretion of the Executive. Today, the Senate will meet to discuss key projects such as the emergency of the Garrahan hospital and university financing, in a context of growing confrontation.
On the Financial Front, the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) confirmed last night that The wholesale fixed deadline tamar rate reached a 76.6% historical recordwhile Stock sacks touched intradiarium peaks of almost 150% before closing an annual nominal 70%. A report from Barclays known yesterday warned about increasing risks in the Argentine economy and pointed out that the perception of a transitory exchange regime could unleash tensions in the market and make the government be obliged to sell dollars on the ceiling of the exchange band. The seams of the political and economic model tense to the limit, and the margin of government maneuver is faded.
Double setback in deputies test the Executive
Yesterday’s session in deputies marked a turning point. The Emergency Law in Disability He exceeded the presidential veto with a two -thirds majority. The Standard guarantees benefit financing, updates tariffs in accordance with inflation and creates a non -contributory pension equivalent to 70% of the minimum being until 2027. The opposition coalition, led by Union by the homeland and backed by Federal Meeting, the Civic Coalition, sectors of the UCR and provincialist legislators, sent the initiative to return to the Senate, where two thirds will be needed to promulgate it.
Simultaneously, Deputies approved the automatic cast of 1% of the ATNs to the provinces According to the co -participation indices, with 143 votes in favor, 90 against and 12 abstentions. This project, promoted by the governors, had the support of Unión for the Homeland, provincial blocks and a sector of the UCR, but presented fractures in the ruling party: Pro legislators, influenced by Mauricio Macri, voted against, while the new block “coherence”, a detachment of freedom progresses, the initiative backed. The measure, which reduces the ability of the Executive to negotiate politically with the funds, reflects the growing influence of the governors in an increasingly adverse congress.
To that adds that This Thursday the Senate takes up the activity With a agenda that includes the emergency declaration of the Garrahan Hospital, to guarantee its operation in the face of budgetary restrictions, and a University Financing Law, in response to the crisis of public universities. These initiatives, with broad opposition support, reinforce confrontation with an executive who bets on the veto as a containment tool. The governors, key actors in the approval of the ATNs, will be determining again, although the divisions between leaders (for example, with Alfredo Cornejo, closer to the ruling party) could complicate the opposition strategy.
future. In the long term, rates will not be able to continue at 40%, Caputo said.
future. In the long term, rates will not be able to continue at 40%, Caputo said.
Tamar and Caúcion Rate: A financial system on the verge of collapse
The resonance box of these legislative battles that pierce the tax account of the government permeates the financial system. Carried by the liquidity crisis and the government’s tube to maintain the dollar At $ 1,300 levels, the BCRA last night confirmed that the Wholesale Rate of Argentina (Tamar), which measures the yields of the fixed deadlines of $ 1 billion or more with maturities of 30 to 35 days, reached a historical record of 76.6%. This level, far higher than usual reference rates, reflects a market under pressure for persistent inflation and devaluation expectations.
The Cautions Stock markets, short -term credit operations in the stock market, added more volatility to the panorama. This Wednesday, they reached An annual nominal nominal intradiary peak for one day placementsbefore closing at 70%, a level still high. This volatility, exacerbated by the elimination of fiscal liquidity letters (LEFI) and changes in bank lace regulations, reflects the lack of a clear reference rate. The banks, when closing their boxes earlier, generated an excess of momentary liquidity that collapsed the rates in previous days, but yesterday the speculation due to time differences of rates doubled the yields of the Lecaps sold last week.
Barclays opens the question about the dollar
It didn’t help either A Barclays report known yesterday that He focused on exchange policy. According to the financial entity, Argentina’s macroeconomic perspectives face growing risks. “We have been constructive regarding the macroeconomic perspectives of Argentina. Our base scenario is maintained. These high real rates and the recent exchange instability should be an obstacle, and we hope that better conditions are consolidated for the accumulation of reserves after the intermediate elections of October, as the disinflation resumes and the current regime recovers credibility. However, some political decisions and adversities have increased. Probability of challenging scenarios, ”warned the bank.
Barclays said The main risk is that the exchange regime be perceived as transitorywhat could trigger market tensions in the expectation of a post -election policy change. “If a consensus arises in the market that the exchange ceiling, the restrictive monetary policy and the priorities of the Treasury are adjusted to the electoral policy and will subsequently change, considerable tensions may arise,” he added and He warned about the possibility that the market tests the exchange ceilinggenerating a problematic dynamic for reserves.
Source: Ambito
