While the OLEAGINOSE-CEREALERO COMPLEX liquid U $ S16,750 million in the first semester, the cheap dollar led a net exit of US $ 5,360 million for tourism, that is, the equivalent of 32% of the entry of agriculture. In July, Argentines’ expenses abroad would remain at record levels. A “proxy” that helps anticipate it is the stock of card loans, which reached US $ 794 million at the end of that month, according to calculations of 1816 based on data from the Central Bank (BCRA).
Meanwhile, the settlement of the agrodollars of the seventh month of the year (encouraged by the full reimposition of agriculture at the end of June, and then permanently cut) was record in more than two decades, when totaling the US $ 4,100 millionaccording to Ciara-Cec. “While there is a lag between the declaration and the effective liquidation, Julio registered a firm offer of agriculture,” said ACM economist, ACM economist, Francisco Ricto.
The correction of the exchange rate during July is well seen by the market, as long as it is not transferred at prices. Although part of the appreciation of that month, it was moderated during the first two weeks of August: 5% fall until Thursday, after rising 14% in July.
In that sense, after the real rise in weight, doubts arise about the expectation of adjusting the tourism balance, which was deficient around U $ S863 Millions net in June and scored its highest level for that month since 2017according to Balances.
However, the moderation of dollars for tourism will be “slow.” It is something similar to what happened between 2018 and 2019, since people get the tickets a few months before traveling. “Tourism is sensitive to the real exchange rate, but not immediately,” he analyzed Matías Rajnerman, Director of Province Bank.
What can happen to the departure of dollars on tourism?
In July it is expected that the currency exit will accelerate, one of the drivers were the winter holidays, which despite the acceleration of the currency would explain part of the progress in the expenses. The 1816 “proxy” based on the stock loan stock, which reached U $ S794 millionIt helps to anticipate that in the seventh month of the year it would continue at record levels.
“July’s expenditures will remain at very high levels, surely they are above June. Calculate about US $ 1,300 million, instead of US $ 1,100 million of the sixth month of the year. With that the net balance would be close to US $ 900 yu $ s1,000 million, against a deficit of US $ 863 million in June”he analyzed Laura Vernelli Economist of Balances.
At the same time, the Permanent decline of withholdings did not take effect: While the oleaginous complex liquidated again, weekly sales began to slow down, as seen in the graph of the Province Bank.
In the first full week with low retentions, the complex only liquidated 88 million dollars, far from the Julio Picos.
Field settlement
Forward, the liquidation could begin to moderate. In that line, Rajnerman stressed that he could have a reaction similar to Sergio Massa whitish: “First it is a success, but then it falls,” said the economist.
In that line, one of the great problems forward is the demand for dollars, which is not explained by the Tourism output but there are other catalysts such as the demand for human persons (after the flexibility of the stocks), imports, payment of debt and binding of the BCRA (the latter detained from the change of exchange regime).
Thus, Riteo de ACM stressed that “from the partial departure of the stocks there was a strong demand for dollars by human people, who already accumulate about US $ 6 billion of net demand.” For the specialist, “this greatly explains the exchange pressure on the demand side.”
Source: Ambito
