The first extra estimates officers on the Economic activity July agreed, mostly, to show a new monthly setback. In case of corroborating, it would be the Worse negative streak in more than a year.
This week INDEC reported that The monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) contracted 0.7% in Junecompared to May. In this way, the data of the de -stationalized series was the second lowest since November 2024, only exceeded by the March figure of this year, a month prior to the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), marked by a growing expectation of devaluation.
At the sector level, a Brutal monthly drop of 70.6% in fishing. As he could find out Scopethis was a consequence of a strong paralysis in exports, in the face of structural changes in global consumption patterns that affect Argentine products and are not compensated by a rebound in domestic demand.
Also, too They highlighted casualties in the manufacturing industry and trade, 1.5% and 1.2%respectively. The construction exhibited a 0.3%reduction, while the oil sector and the bank continued to stand out among the “winners” of the model.
July’s advanced data about economic activity are not encouraging
In the face of July, the advanced data is not encouraging. For example, Analytica predicted a 0.1% setback in the debut of your own activity index.
The consultant remarked the importance of “having a thermometer of the monthly evolution of the economy”, since “The determinants of economic growth changed the product of a new macroeconomic regime“. With that horizon he built this indicator that uses high frequency data linked to consumption, credit and different sector dynamics.
For its part, A balancing the calculations gave him a monthly decrease of 0.3% In the activity of the seventh month of the year, explained largely by a 2.3% drop in the agricultural sector “after delaying corn harvesting for high humidity”. In parallel, the aggregate of the rest of the sectors showed a negative variation of 0.1%.
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Something similar estimated the Province Bank Through Pulsopba, its brand new automated system that, through artificial intelligence (AI), processes 1,200 variables to measure weekly the economy of the largest province in the country. While the financial entity reported a slight rise of 0.2% in Julyfor the last four weeks (which include on the last two of July and the first two of August), it expressed a 0.4%decline.
On the causes of this cooling, the province made emphasis on “the volatility of interest rates and the hardening of monetary policy, which especially affects credit“
In the same way, Fiel published on Wednesday its industrial production index (IPI) of July, which suffered a 1.4% decline compared to the previous month. “With the above, all indicators that allow evaluating the sustainability of the recovery phase initiated in April last year indicate a exhaustion of the dynamics of activity improvement“They highlighted in a report.
The economy, on the way to chaining three consecutive falls
If the INDEC data, which will be published within approximately one month, corroborate the new fall of July, It would be the third negative figure to thread. The last similar streak had been observed between February and April 2024.
“With the drop plan Limits for the growth of the current scheme that keeps the demand for sustaining the monetary and exchange regime“They said from Analytica.
He salary stagnationpromoting for a government that promotes agreements of 1% monthly for the most representative peers of the work world, it has already been putting a roof to domestic demand for several months. But in addition, the recent jump in interest rates It seriously puts a private credit, which during the end of last year was the main engine of economic recovery.
Given this scenario, the ruling seems to be prioritizing exchange calm and deceleration of inflation, leaving the economic reactivation already in the backgrounddespite the proximity of the legislative elections.
Source: Ambito
