He dollar. When the president Javier Milei He mentioned this week that “everything necessary to support the band system” because “is the basis of our macroeconomic credibility,” many analysts and economists automatically thought about Guido Sandleris.
Sandleris was president of the Central Bank between September 25, 2018 and December 10, 2019 and, although under the low, the economist is usually summoned in the Treasury Palace as One of the architects of the current exchange band plan that seeks to contain expectations with the dollar. After the flexibility of the exchange rate in April of this year, the rescue of the IMF and the ratification of the government’s interest in avoiding any extent that can “arouse ghosts of abrupt devaluations” before the October legislative elections, Speculations are the order of the day.
The lack of accumulation of reserves in the BCRA but, above all, the evidence that the government is willing to do everything within its reach – including a rise in the interest rate at unpublished levels – as long as the dollar flotation does not take it to the ceiling of the exchange band, opened the rumors that are now cooked over low heat. Based, there are few officials and former officials of the macro administration who maintain A possible update of the exchange scheme after Octoberprecisely inspired by the Sandleris regime, but Recalibrated to the actual multilateral exchange rate (ITCRM). This adjustment would seek to correct exchange backwardness, strengthen external competitiveness and respond to IMF’s demands on the accumulation of reserves, in an inflation scenario in descent but with still fragile reserves.
Sandleris’s dollar and band adjustment
The data to follow is interesting. The current scheme, established in April 2025 by the Minister Luis Caputoset a $ 1,000 floor and a $ 1,400 ceiling for the dollar, with monthly -1% and +1% adjustments, respectively, reaching a $ 970 floor and a $ 1,451 floor. However, the idea of climbing it to an updated band to ITCRM becomes increasingly strength. This indicator could Align the values with those of Sandleris in real terms, estimated at $ 1,666 (floor) and $ 2,157 (roof)reflecting accumulated inflation and exchange rates of commercial partners.
The former president of the BCRA of Mauricio Macri designed a scheme of exchange bands that debuted in September 2018 with a $ 34 floor and a $ 44 ceiling, initially adjusted to 3% monthly and then 2%, until freezing in April 2019 ($ 39.75 and $ 51.45). The economist defined this mechanism as a “Non -intervention zone” that allowed the exchange rate to float freely within the limits, with interventions of the BCRA only at the ends to stabilize the market. In recent reflections, he said that His scheme sought to “anchor expectations” in a crisis contextcombining bands with strict control of monetary aggregates, but warned that their effectiveness depended on a “solid fiscal balance” and a “credible monetary policy.” Sandleris himself commented that “Current volatility does not equals the 2018 crisis”but stressed that the success of any exchange band requires “macroeconomic consistency” to avoid return to the stocks.
Vladimir Werning’s track, the “Messiah” of the exchange band
In parallel, the official who must be followed in the conceptual is the current vice president of the BCRA, Vladimir Werningwho has reinforced the sustainability of the scheme. For example, in the last annual congress of the Argentine Institute of Executives in Finance (IAEF), Werning explained that the BCRA avoided buying dollars if the exchange rate did not reach the band’s floor for “Strengthen the credibility of the values that define exchange bands” and “build a transparent process of the market price experiment, which is post-reflotation of the weight.”
He added that this flexibility, combined with a restrictive bias in fiscal and monetary policy, offered “the perspective of a growth cycle without relevant external imbalances”, suggesting a continuity of the scheme in the medium term, even post-October, provided that the accumulation of reserves and macroeconomic stability is maintained.
In a presentation at the “Argentina Economic Forum” organized by Banco Galicia and the International Finance Institute, Werning emphasized that “no one is stepping on the exchange rate and we are not selling reservations, we are floating,” and stressed that The band scheme allows the BCRA to prioritize the accumulation of reserves without compromising the stability of the exchange market. Many read in these statements the intention of the government to maintain the bands as a pillar of their strategy, with possible post -election adjustments to align the exchange rate with more competitive levels.
Although the government has not explicitly mentioned, the evidence and succession of measures seems to indicate that In the Casa Rosada they are willing to avoid at all costs that the dollar touchs the roof of the current band (above $ 1,450)possibly conditioned by a “virtual clause” not disclosed in the agreement with the IMF that would limit the sale of reserves for direct interventions.
This approach is evidenced in the Caputo activated containment plan, which prioritizes monetary tools such as treasure letters and the increase in bank lace to absorb liquidity, instead of injecting pesos or selling dollars. As confessed Milei in Olivos This week, the Executive will do “everything that is necessary” to preserve the band of bands, including potential BCRA interventions with IMF reserves. But the current caution suggests a fear of revealing implicit restrictions that could erode the credibility of the economic program.
Upload the rate until nobody thinks about the dollar
The dollar containment strategy reflects a delicate balance between Milei’s promise to defend the exchange ceiling and the restrictions imposed by the IMF, which could limit the ability of the BCRA to sell reservations. The tender of letters at Variable Tamar, exclusive for banks and expiring in November, sought to absorb surplus weights and avoid bullish pressure on the dollar that takes it to the band’s roof.
This mechanism, combined with the decision of Maintain high bank lace -A indirect way of affecting the interest rate-, it aims to contain the demand for foreign exchange without resorting to direct interventions that compromise reservations, a resource that the IMF seems to discourage within the framework of the April Agreement. Milei’s “strange confession” in Olivos on the willingness to use IMF reserves if necessary, revealed a tension between the official rhetoric of defense of the scheme and the practical limitations imposed by the goals of accumulation of currencies.
The debate on exchange backwardness, estimated between 20% and 30% in real terms, has been central among economists. Ricardo Arriazu It comes to emphasizing that the delay compromises the competitiveness of the export sector, by reducing the commercial surplus and limiting the accumulation of reserves, which remain in negative terrain without considering the funds of the IMF. Carlos Melconian Criticism Crawling implicit in current bands and qualifies it as “unsustainable” by promoting a “cheap” dollar that stimulates imports and discourages productive investments, predicting an abrupt post-electoral correction if it does not act.
Marina Dal Poggetto He warned about the risk of a surplus of weights in a context of weak reserves, which could rekindle inflation – even in recoil – if the exchange rate does not align with real “fundamental”. For its part, Emmanuel Álvarez Agis He emphasized the structural vulnerabilities of the economy, such as the dependence of commodities and exposure to external shocks. It was Agis who proposed that an ITCR -adjusted band could stabilize the real exchange rate, avoiding a discreet devaluation that fractures trust and triggers inflationary expectations.
The IMF insisted on the need to accumulate reservations to underpin exchange stability. In recent reviews, the agency gave the government an additional margin to meet reservations. Julie Kozack, FMI spokeswoman, stressed that current reserves cover only 23% of the appropriate level and urged measures to strengthen them without compromising the administered flotation. The April agreement, which injected funds to support the departure of the stocks, conditions future disbursements to advances in this front, with the IMF closely monitoring the exchange dynamics in a “hot context” by the dollar. The pressure to accumulate reservations reinforces the hypothesis of a recalibrated band after October, which facilitates selective interventions of the BCRA to capture currencies without destabilizing the market.
Source: Ambito
