In the last survey of market expectations (REM) carried out by the Central Bank (BCRA) in July, the median private estimates showed a growth forecast of 5% per year, identical figure to which it had shown the June REM.
However, before the consultation of Scope To specialists from recognized consultants, the new projections are already below that number. LCG and balancing an increase close to 4.5%, Econviews calculations were left at 4.2%, while from echoing they also expect a percentage close to 4%or “perhaps something above.”
Gonzalo Carrerasenior economist of balancing, he clarified to this medium that the last correction was done in July, so he did not rule out that there are new adjustments shortly. “It is already a rather lean scenario, since It would imply a practically stagnant economy in Decemberin interannual terms, “he said.
Consultants already see GDP growth less than 5% in 2025
From the consultant they highlighted in a report that “In a context of raising, lace, and delinquency“.” If this happens, The featuring of the level of activity in unstacted terms, could be transformed into a recessiondue to the growing tension in the payment chain and the direct impact of a lower financial intermediation in the activity, “they warned.
According to the first extracted advanced official data, The economic activity would have suffered in July its third consecutive monthly fall, something that did not happen since the February-April period of 2024.
Forwards, Melisa SalaEconomist of LCG, sees that “until October the rates will surely remain high, even when their effectiveness to moderate tensions in the change market can lose effect.” “After October it is expected that there are changes in the management of exchange policy and that should imply a decrease in rates. However, that does not mean that the activity begins to grow strongly“He warned.
For its part, Luciano Patruccoechoing analyst, said that, after the last data of the monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) of INDEC, which exhibited a stagnation in the second quarter, in the consultant they made modifications down for what remains of 2025, although “the numbers still continue to move them.”
“We still don’t finish our projection for July, but We are anticipating a fall due to the movement in the rates that result from the disarmament of the Lefi. In August we are having a lot of volatility too, “he explained, while questioning destabilization in the rules of the game derived from the decisions of the economic team.
“You still have not solved the problem of liquidity and there are the elections of the province of Buenos Aires. The stage seems to be bad for the third quarter. If the game conditions and get good results in October, perhaps in the fourth quarter you will see yourself on the positive path, “he said.
Salary anchor, monetary squeery and sector heterogeneity
For its part, the consultant CP He argued that “The impact of the devaluation and volatility of rates would only be reflected in the month of August“. For the entity led by Pablo Moldovan and Federico Pastrana,”Contractive monetary policy and salary anchor impose serious limitations on the recovery of the activity forward“
Within this gloomy panorama for the whole economy, a important heterogeneity sectorial. While the financial sector and the primary sectors, with the energy to the head, stand out among the “winners” of the model, industry and construction suffer the toughest blows of government decisions.
Also, within the industry, divisions with the best performance are also linked to natural resources; Such are cases of food and drinks, or oil refining. On the contrary, divisions exposed to commercial opening or dependent on public works, such as textile and non -metallic minerals, or engineering intensive such as basic metal industries or machinery and equipment, are the most affected.
Source: Ambito
