The real economy does not raise their heads and begins to notice in the streets: the consumer trust He collapsed In August 13.87% monthly, which represents the greatest fall since December 2023, according to the Torcuato Di Tella University. The greatest contraction occurred in the City of Buenos Aires and the GBA, although at the regional level it also dropped, but to a lesser extent (7.07%).
An radiography of the decrease in consumer trust are the data of Consumption in wholesale self -services that showed a decrease of 1.8% in June compared to May, while in unstacted terms they played a historical minimum since 2017, According to the measurement of National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC). In turn, Sales supermarkets exhibited a slight monthly ascent of 0.2%, with a trend to stagnation. Finally, the performance in Shoppingsmore associated with the consumption of durable goods and middle sectors, He threw his first year -on -year decrease since November 2024.
Meanwhile, the Money on personal loans and credit cards They went up to June 6.4% and 4.4%, respectively, while in the families climbed 6.5% and 4.9%respectively, according to the BCRA BANKS REPORT. It is a record since 2021 in both cases. The increase in delinquency occurred in the midst of a strong volatility of interest rates, which make financing costs more expensive.
By subscripts, the personal situation fell 12.89% in the month, the perception of the macroeconomic situation yielded 13.73% and Durable and real estate contracted 15.20%.
For its part, the wages They continue on a very low threshold, with the registered private falling a 0.6% real from the assumption of Javier Milei, while the Average public salaries lost 14.3% since November 2023. In this way, income still does not observe improvements during the libertarian administration. “Despite the strong slowdown in inflation, the acceptance of a very demanding salary pattern – between 1% and 1.5% – prevents the recovery of real salary”they highlighted from CP Consultants.
In an election year, income was expected to rebound and especially in a pricing a context, however, the economist Pablo Ferrari He stressed that “the flag of this government is not the salary rise, but the decrease in inflation.”
In turn, Present conditionsthat measure how people feel today regarding their economy and the general economy, 14.89% decreased compared to Julyalthough 21.76% are maintained above the level of August of 2024. Future expectations also yielded, with a monthly decrease of 13.10% and an year -on -year setback of 16.36%.
Consumer trust
The August Consumer Trust Index (ICC) was 3.64% below the same month last year, although there is still 12.18% above the January 2024 floor (35.60).
“The ICC fell more in lower income households (-18.33% monthly), than in high-income homes (-10.27% monthly)”they reported from the Di Tella University.
In that line, Isaac Rudnik, of the Citizen Economic and Political Social Research Institute (ISEPCI), He stressed that “The most relevant data is that consumption drop persists, now with a new GDP dropthat puts us at the doors of a recession. “
The Economic activity July would write down monthly setback, according to the first extra official estimates. Analytica predicted a 0.1% setback in the debut of your own activity index; while Balances measured a monthly decrease of 0.3% In the seventh month of the year. For its part, Province Bank Through Pulsopba, he reported a slight rise of 0.2% in Julyalthough for the last four weeks (which include the last two of July and the first two of August), it expressed a 0.4%decline. In case of corroborating, it would be the Worse negative streak in more than a year.
“The Government shows the containment of inflation as the main and unique flag. The reduction of economic activity, the avalanche of cheaper imported products, and artificially low support from the value of the dollar, are the tools to contain inflation. It is not clear for how much more time, “Rudnik added.
Even during July there was a slight monthly deflation of 0.1% in the cost of the basic food basket that isepci measures and was located at $ 863,126. Iteards such as warehouse (-0.04%), greengrocer (-0.48%) and butcher shop (-0.01%) showed monthly casualties or minimal variations.
Source: Ambito
