The deceleration of the economy in the second quarter of this year, the volatibility of rates and “electoral uncertainty” are some of the risks. Yes, the economic recovery registered since the second semester of 2024.
The American bank JP Morgan published a report this Friday where he cut its growth projection of the Argentine economy by 2025. Now it foresees 4.7% of the internal gross product (GDP) instead of the 5.3% were in previous works. It marks the deceleration of the economy in the second quarter of this year, the volatibility of rates and “electoral uncertainty.”
The JPMorgan recognizes advances in the fiscal surplus and in the reduction of inflation (Projecting an interannual inflation of 26.8% for December 2025), but it emphasizes that political uncertainty and financial volatility could negatively affect Internal consumption, exports and macroeconomic stability in the coming months.
In the report there is a chapter about the difficult week the government had in Congresswhere he lost almost all votes, but managed to keep the retirement law. Precisely, on that last vote, JP Morgan He stressed that the ruling party could avoid the fiscal impact that the increase in retirement and pensions would have meant that promoted the different opposition blocks.
However, The reiteration of legislative defeats adds doubts to the political future of the government. The volatibility of rates is a sign of these doubts in the market, which was reluctant in the role proposed by Luis Caputo’s portfolio.
Economic activity: unequal recovery
The report indicates that The growth of economic activity in June was a lean 0.5% higher than the average of the last quarter of 2024. But if compared to December, it was 0.6% lower and 0.5% below the maximum postpandemics of 2022.
He also detailed other discouraging indicators of July. There were monthly falls in car sales (10.4%) and in industrial production (2.8%).
Despite these negative numbers, there were other sectors to which Recovery from the second quarter of 2024. Since April 2024 there was significant recovery in financial services (27.5%), commerce (8.3%), construction (12.2%) and mining (7.8%).
Primary fiscal surplus and high rates
According to JP Morgan, The primary fiscal surplus accumulated in July reached 1.1% of GDP. The American bank projects that the annual primary surplus will reach 1.7% of GDP. The total result will be 0.4% of GDP in 2025, they calculate.
He also warned that the impact of Supplies on fiscal accounts is low in the short termbut it will be essential that there is normalization of market conditions to ensure fiscal and monetary stability in the medium term.
Source: Ambito
